Resolves YES if the US Supreme Court determines (majority opinion) that all or part of Biden's executive order, i.e. at least several significant provisions, are unconstitutional by January 1, 2025.
Since there may be some discretion in assessing 'significant', I will not bet on this market.
Executive orders are subject to judicial review and can therefore be ruled unconstitutional by the court. Legal challenges in lower courts would not trigger a positive resolution. Nor a revocation of the order by a future administration.
On the other hand, the order appears to require the production of rules and other administrative actions, all of which are subject to judicial review. These may become candidates for a resolution. Legal challenges to actions that the EO has directed federal agencies to take may become candidates for a resolution if they reach the Supreme Court, assuming such actions follow from the EO directions.
A negative resolution can only happen either after the deadline or sooner if the Supreme Court makes a ruling (majority opinion) upholding the order.
The executive order:
Related questions
@ZviMowshowitz's latest Substack includes some reactions suggesting it's not impossible it would face legal challenges, though they all seem to fall under Zvi's 'unhinged' umbrella for now.
https://thezvi.substack.com/p/reactions-to-the-executive-order
Do you ask this because you think there is some provision that violates or is contradictory to some part of the constitution? I can speak authoritatively on this, the entire thing is basically just a delegation document, assigning different parts of different agencies to work together under a framework that is not created by the order, but was in fact created over the last 5 years through NSF funded grants to AI centers of excellence and the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility and Globus Labs. This order basically takes the infrastructure I just mentioned and puts it to work now that it is operational. The order is like the most vanilla possible version of the thing if you had asked me yesterday.
I think in an order this big and a SCOTUS this anti-regulation, there's a chance! I'm going to add 3000 mana in subsidy to this market as part of the Public Interest Subsidy Program.
@BTE With sweeping EOs there’s always the risk of executive overreach and bypassing congressional authority (which SCOTUS is happy to do itself but bracket the hypocrisy).