Adapting verbatim, except for the date, @Conflux's description for this market: https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-bidens-classified-documents-be?r=Tmljb0RlbG9u
I will provide needed clarifications on resolution criteria in comments and update the description accordingly.
Clarification (4/10): whether the issue has been 'largely forgotten' will be assessed on Election Day. Even if it had been temporality forgotten (whatever that means) in the interim, it may still resolve NO, for instance if it has been a continuous topic of debates until the election.
Clarifications (7/6): like @Conflux, I will use a scoring rubric to determine the outcome. See their market linked above.
Some of Joe Biden's lawyers discovered in his Delaware home some classified documents he kept from Obama's presidency. Biden's team returned the documents and claims it was an accident. However, Kevin McCarthy called for the launch of an investigation. Here's the Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden_classified_documents_incident
Resolves YES if this whole situation is largely forgotten by the media and the popular zeitgeist by Election Day (11/5/24) and NO otherwise. N/A if it's especially ambiguous. This is a subjective market, but I'll do my best to resolve fairly.
Conservative media outlets will be weighted modestly: if liberal/mainstream media stops covering it but it's a very frequent talking point on Fox News, for example, this will probably resolve NO, but YES if it's only an occasional Fox talking point. Other factors I may consider include: level of awareness among people I know (including those who don't follow politics), level of conversation on Twitter, and number of Manifold markets made on the subject.
I will not bet on this market unless I feel it is very mispriced.
Apr 10, 9:18pm: Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten before Election Day? → Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten on Election Day?
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ86 | |
| 2 | Ṁ60 | |
| 3 | Ṁ38 | |
| 4 | Ṁ20 | |
| 5 | Ṁ14 |
People are also trading
@traders Since I don’t think this is controversial I will resolve YES without using the detailed rubric. I ran a Google search and it’s fair to say almost no one is talking about this anymore, presumably because Biden is no longer running. None of the major newspapers have substantially covered it in months. There are occasional brief mentions mostly related to Hunter. The issue was not mentioned during presidential debates.
If anyone disagrees let me know but this seems clear cut.
@traders Since I don’t think this is controversial I will resolve YES without using the detailed rubric. I ran a Google search and it’s fair to say almost no one is talking about this anymore, presumably because Biden is no longer running. None of the major newspapers have substantially covered it in months. There are occasional brief mentions mostly related to Hunter. The issue was not mentioned during presidential debates.
If anyone disagrees let me know but this seems clear cut.
@NicoDelon Can you clarify what the bar is? Conflux gave a very detailed scoring rubric, are you going to use the same one?
@NicoDelon Happy to send mana to anyone who voted YES because they thought it would resolve YES if @Conflux‘s market resolved YES.
@jack Sorry, I just saw this. No, I’ll assess on Election Day.
For now it seems that, by the criteria of the original market, it will be largely forgotten on resolution date. But I’m interested in whether it’ll come back.