Will Mohammed bin Salman become the King of Saudi Arabia during 2023?
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resolved Jan 1
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NO

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bought Ṁ25 of NO

Base rates for death of an 87 year old man are ~11%, in the US. The risk is probably lower for someone like the King of Saudi, with access to all possible medical interventions. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

bought Ṁ60 of NO

@JoshuaAnderson Fun fact, the King of Saudi Arabia is treated at UChicago Hospital, which is named for him I believe.

predicted NO

@JoshuaAnderson I may be wrong about it being named after him. But lots of Arabs come there when they have cancer.