As measured by the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
All time high for these purposes is the June '22 reading of 308.365. If at any time a 2023 reading returns at 246.692 or lower, this question resolves "Yes". Otherwise "No".
If no reading has resulted in a "Yes" resolution then the question will resolve "No" after the Dec '23 reading is reported around March '24. Betting will close EOY '23.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ158 | |
| 2 | Ṁ88 | |
| 3 | Ṁ61 | |
| 4 | Ṁ41 | |
| 5 | Ṁ26 |
247 would represent a -16% decline from today's index value of 293, which is about double the drop predicted by even the most bearish of the nine research firms in this forecast roundup (https://fortune.com/2023/05/10/housing-market-home-price-predictions/). The other eight firms are even farther from expecting such a huge crash. So, as much as this Georgist/Yimby/soon-to-be-first-time-homebuyer would love it if your scenario came true, I am thinking that such a dramatic crash is very unlikely this year.