This market will resolve at a randomly chosen time (known only to me) between October 13 23:59 ET and October 20 23:59 ET.
* If the price at that time is >=80%, this market will resolve YES.
* If the price at that time is <=20%, this market will resolve NO.
* Otherwise, I will NOT resolve the market, write a comment with this information, and will pick a new random time when I will attempt to resolve the market.
If the market fails to resolve twice, I will begin lowering the thresholds (e.g. the price will only need to be <=30% to resolve NO).
This market is similar to Jack's, but I am testing a different resolution method which I believe will produce better results on this form of question.
I will not trade in this market.
Sep 26, 6:39pm: Added the paragraph beginning with "If the market fails to resolve twice." I forgot to include this in the original description.
Close date updated to 2022-10-04 6:56 pm
Close date updated to 2023-01-01 6:56 pm
Oct 7, 9:25pm: Will Biden be president on October 6? [Self-Resolving] → Will Biden be president on October 6, 2022? [Self-Resolving]
@Yev Can see my portfolio value for rough idea of that. Quite negative lol. But so long as profit somewhat intact
I believe I can share my final total, and a breakdown of how it happened. It's very complicated though so it will take a bit lol. There were some ambiguities in the profit agreements that still need to be resolved.
But overall I made a profit of around 10k from the trading itself - notably, this includes the off-market deal I made with George after we both could see that I was winning where he paid me directly and I took his shares off him. I paid out a large chunk of that to my teammates. I'm very generous with my teammates, which is why my team is better :)
My profits:
10k from GeorgeVii: We agreed to settle our shares at a price of 25%, which was mostly because he needed to pay back loans so I gave a generous enough price that he wouldn't end up in debt.
6k paid to Yev for information and profit sharing
2.5k paid to Austin for providing funding
Leaving 1.5k personal profits for myself.
The outcome was definitely not as profitable as I'd hoped, mainly because GeorgeVii was able to figure out that I had enough funds to win before he bought that much YES. In theory I think I could have profited >M$100k here. Oh well, it was fun!
@MichaelWheatley Mainly it was insight into the amount of funding available to the opposition. I also set up a profit-sharing scheme with Yev and Austin to help align our incentives and make any attempted backstabbings less profitable 😂
Should rename the market 1:2 donation matching curtsy of @jack's leaderboard position lol
@jack The way hedging using this market interacts with trades on the main market might have some additional interesting properties.
@NinthCause Want to partner up? I can offer advice in efficient capital deployment if that helps, very easy win with correct strat :))