Will Biden be president on October 6, 2022? [Self-Resolving]
Basic
52
Ṁ170k
resolved Nov 4
Resolved
NO

This market will resolve at a randomly chosen time (known only to me) between October 13 23:59 ET and October 20 23:59 ET.
* If the price at that time is >=80%, this market will resolve YES.
* If the price at that time is <=20%, this market will resolve NO.
* Otherwise, I will NOT resolve the market, write a comment with this information, and will pick a new random time when I will attempt to resolve the market.

If the market fails to resolve twice, I will begin lowering the thresholds (e.g. the price will only need to be <=30% to resolve NO).

This market is similar to Jack's, but I am testing a different resolution method which I believe will produce better results on this form of question.

I will not trade in this market.

Sep 26, 6:39pm: Added the paragraph beginning with "If the market fails to resolve twice." I forgot to include this in the original description.

Close date updated to 2022-10-04 6:56 pm

Close date updated to 2023-01-01 6:56 pm

Oct 7, 9:25pm: Will Biden be president on October 6? [Self-Resolving] → Will Biden be president on October 6, 2022? [Self-Resolving]

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My word, Nice finale!

Lots of backroom deals and dark money in this one!
@Austin I'm watching you very closely henceforth 👀

(tho perhaps I would have learnt that earlier had I been around for the previous meme market sagas)

I'm curious what everyone's final profits are including all the backroom deals. But I imagine no one will want to share this information.

@Yev Can see my portfolio value for rough idea of that. Quite negative lol. But so long as profit somewhat intact

@GeorgeVii i don't mind spending a little

predicted YES

I believe I can share my final total, and a breakdown of how it happened. It's very complicated though so it will take a bit lol. There were some ambiguities in the profit agreements that still need to be resolved.

But overall I made a profit of around 10k from the trading itself - notably, this includes the off-market deal I made with George after we both could see that I was winning where he paid me directly and I took his shares off him. I paid out a large chunk of that to my teammates. I'm very generous with my teammates, which is why my team is better :)

Why did you do that off-market deal instead of using a challenge bet?

predicted YES

I considered it, but manalinks are a lot easier to think about, and I didn't particularly care about the profits showing up accurately on the leaderboard.

predicted YES

My profits:

  • 10k from GeorgeVii: We agreed to settle our shares at a price of 25%, which was mostly because he needed to pay back loans so I gave a generous enough price that he wouldn't end up in debt.

  • 6k paid to Yev for information and profit sharing

  • 2.5k paid to Austin for providing funding

  • Leaving 1.5k personal profits for myself.

The outcome was definitely not as profitable as I'd hoped, mainly because GeorgeVii was able to figure out that I had enough funds to win before he bought that much YES. In theory I think I could have profited >M$100k here. Oh well, it was fun!

My profits:

  • M$3,038 from trading

  • M$5,972 from Jack (market research and profit sharing)

  • M$6,470 from George (market research and loans)

Total: M$15,480

predicted YES

@Yev Yep, Yev is the big winner here lol.

@jack @GeorgeVii What was this lucrative information you guys pay so much for?

predicted YES

@MichaelWheatley Mainly it was insight into the amount of funding available to the opposition. I also set up a profit-sharing scheme with Yev and Austin to help align our incentives and make any attempted backstabbings less profitable 😂

@MichaelWheatley I also gave George a loan with an outrageously high interest rate.

Thank you all traders for participating; this was a fun market to watch! It was also clearly a complete failure at being a good self-resolving market.

This is why I like to do my markets as "probably it's round(mkt), but I will look into it in proportion to how surprised/confused by that I am"

My truth loving self wishes that it had cost more for them to sway the market

Thanks for running this. I had a lot of fun. There were a lot of behind-the-scenes shenanigans, as you might guess from the recent trade history. I'll post a bit about it shortly, but I did turn a very tidy profit here.

My least profitable market ever. It ends!

predicted YES

Should rename the market 1:2 donation matching curtsy of @jack's leaderboard position lol

@GeorgeVii Which side is doing the donating and which side is doing the matching lol

predicted YES

Created a derivative market (which is interesting because people can actually predict on it, instead of manipulate it):

@jack The way hedging using this market interacts with trades on the main market might have some additional interesting properties.

Here's another:

predicted YES

@NinthCause Want to partner up? I can offer advice in efficient capital deployment if that helps, very easy win with correct strat :))

predicted YES

@GeorgeVii I want to partner up with you

predicted YES

(sorry @jack :P)

@Yev Actually, never mind. Jack made a good point for why I shouldn't switch sides.

:)

As you can see, trying to defect from my side is a losing move :)

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