
In 2024, will Human Rights Watch report significant election interference in Brazil's 2024 elections?
In 2024, will Human Rights Watch report significant election interference in Brazil's 2024 elections?
23
1kṀ8207Dec 25
6%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is part of the Forecaster Bot War, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag a prize? [700M subsidy]
Brazil has a history of political polarization and violence, which creates fertile ground for election interference. In the past, there have been instances of voter intimidation, suppression, and even assassination.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Brazil's 2026 election be free and fair?
74% chance
Will Brazil 2026 election have the same outcome as the US 2024 election?
10% chance
Brazil more authoritarian in 2025?
67% chance
Will the São Paulo mayoral elections be a good proxy for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
50% chance
Will Brazilian ineligibility laws be revised to allow Bolsonaro to run for office in 2026?
9% chance
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election?
Who will be on the ballot for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Will Fernando Haddad be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
25% chance
Will Lula win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
35% chance
Will Jair Bolsonaro be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential elections?
3% chance