S&P 500 drops 8%+ by April 2025 post-Liberation Day? | Manifold

S&P 500 drops 8%+ by April 2025 post-Liberation Day?

102

1kṀ48k

Apr 30

26%

chance

27

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market will resolve as YES if the S&P 500 index declines by more than 8% from its closing value on March 31, 2025, to its closing value on April 30, 2025, based on official data from a credible financial source (e.g., Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, or the New York Stock Exchange). The percentage change will be calculated as follows:

- Starting value: S&P 500 closing value on March 31, 2025

- Ending value: S&P 500 closing value on April 30, 2025

- Percentage drop = [(Starting value - Ending value) / Starting value] × 100

If the calculated drop exceeds 8.00%, the market resolves YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO. If the exact closing values are disputed or unavailable, the resolution will rely on the consensus of major financial reporting outlets.

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 20% in any quarter of 2025?

How low will S&P500 go in 2025?

Will the S&P 500 index drop 40% from peak to trough by March, 2029?

Will a stock in the S&P 500 be down 90% by 2024 year end?

Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 2% in one day in 2025 after April 4, 2025?

Will 2025 have two more single day 5% decreases of the S&P 500?

Will the S&P 500 drop below $5,521.52 (its dip on March 13) in any of these months in 2025?

When will S&P 500 drop below $5000? (which day?)

Sort by:

One week until close we are currently down 4.2% from 5,611.85

opened a Ṁ100,000 NO at 50% order

Ṁ100k NO order at 50% for the next hour if anyone is interested

@Panfilo perhaps?

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 28% order

@chrisjbillington Not at 50%, no. I'd buy some more at 30 though.

@chrisjbillington No dice, I think I can hang out in the coming days and get some more action sub-40.

opened a Ṁ50,000 NO at 30% order

@Panfilo Aight, have put in Ṁ50k NO at 30 if you wanna take some

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 15% order

@chrisjbillington Glad I fell asleep for this! Getting better prices now

Close to 5% down right now. About two weeks to go. Anyone want to put up a big order if you're confident it'll stay there or rebound?

Why go up when we can go down

bought Ṁ500 YES

I can't emphasize enough that this is not a bit, and as markets play chicken with breakers, this will get worse before it gets better.

Currently 8 points down.

For the record the S&P 500 closed at 5,611.85 yesterday. So if the market closes at 5,162.90 or lower on April 30th, the market will resolve YES.

People are also trading

Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 20% in any quarter of 2025?

-13% 1d30% chance

How low will S&P500 go in 2025?

Will the S&P 500 index drop 40% from peak to trough by March, 2029?

Will a stock in the S&P 500 be down 90% by 2024 year end?

Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 2% in one day in 2025 after April 4, 2025?

Will 2025 have two more single day 5% decreases of the S&P 500?

Will the S&P 500 drop below $5,521.52 (its dip on March 13) in any of these months in 2025?

When will S&P 500 drop below $5000? (which day?)

Related questions

Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 20% in any quarter of 2025?

How low will S&P500 go in 2025?

Will the S&P 500 index drop 40% from peak to trough by March, 2029?

Will a stock in the S&P 500 be down 90% by 2024 year end?

Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 2% in one day in 2025 after April 4, 2025?

Will 2025 have two more single day 5% decreases of the S&P 500?

Will the S&P 500 drop below $5,521.52 (its dip on March 13) in any of these months in 2025?

When will S&P 500 drop below $5000? (which day?)

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules