S&P 500 drops 8%+ by April 2025 post-Liberation Day? | Manifold

S&P 500 drops 8%+ by April 2025 post-Liberation Day?

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This market will resolve as YES if the S&P 500 index declines by more than 8% from its closing value on March 31, 2025, to its closing value on April 30, 2025, based on official data from a credible financial source (e.g., Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, or the New York Stock Exchange). The percentage change will be calculated as follows:

- Starting value: S&P 500 closing value on March 31, 2025

- Ending value: S&P 500 closing value on April 30, 2025

- Percentage drop = [(Starting value - Ending value) / Starting value] × 100

If the calculated drop exceeds 8.00%, the market resolves YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO. If the exact closing values are disputed or unavailable, the resolution will rely on the consensus of major financial reporting outlets.

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For the record the S&P 500 closed at 5,611.85 yesterday. So if the market closes at 5,162.90 or lower on April 30th, the market will resolve YES.

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-8% 1d34% chance

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Related questions

Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any quarter of 2025?

Will the S&P record a historic low, a 20% drop, before April 2025?

Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 20% in any quarter of 2025?

Will the S&P 500 index drop 40% from peak to trough by March, 2029?

Will a stock in the S&P 500 be down 90% by 2024 year end?

Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 5% in one day in 2025?

Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any quarter of 2025?

S&P 500 Index closes down by more than 1% on April 2, 2025

Will the S&P 500 drop below $5,521.52 (its dip on March 13) in any of these months in 2025?

When will S&P 500 drop below $5000? (which day?)

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