Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]
37
293
2.1k
2033
59%
chance

This market resolves to YES if we officially marry under some jurisdiction and we have a shared home where we expect to live the vast majority of our time in both the near and long term.

This market resolves to NO ahead of time if we officially break up and continue broken for 6 months.

This market resolves to NO on Dec 31st 2032.

I'll provide updates over time and I encourage bettors to ask me questions.

We're both 25yo Brazilians who meet during the first year of our undergrad in Applied Math at Rio de Janeiro. We started our relationship in July 2017 and we're basically the first relationship of each other. She gets along well with my parents and I get along well with her parents and relatives.

In 2020, in the last year of college, we moved together just before the pandemic. After spending one month of lockdown with our parents (I'm from São Paulo country-side, she's from Minas Gerais country-side), we decided to go back to our apartment. In July 2020 I started working in a well-paid job in a long-only asset manager which allowed us to move to a two-bedroom apartment near the Leblon beach in Rio in February 2021. She started her MSc. At the time in Applied Math and I continued working at the firm, which I still do.

In January 2022, we adopted to cats: Pixel and Teddy.

In early 2023, she got a exchange program offer to spend 3 months at NYU. I decided I didn't need a two-bedroom apartment for myself and moved to live with two friends in a shared apartment at Ipanema Beach. She spent three months at NYU, during the time she was declined in all her PhD in the US applications. She got a research fellow offer from NYU, but due to visa issues, had to spend 6 months in Brazil. She spent most of it in my shared apartment. In October 2023 she moved back to the US. In January 2024 she got ab acceptance for the PHD from three unis, including UPenn, which I think she'll accept. She plans to move to Philadelphia later this year.

We have an open relationship (hyrarchical) for one year and an understanding that after her PhD, living together will be a priority. She understands that I want to have a career independent of hers.

I make $70k (PPI-converted in Brazil, but my feelings is that is understates substantially) and I hold equity in the asset manager, which could be valued substantially. I like my work.

Reunification options include: me getting a job in the US (Seems hard given H1-B and curriculum constraints), me joining some school in the US (I once wanted to be an academic before joining finance), me just moving to the US to be a stay at home husband, or she getting a job in Brazil.

Last year when she spent 6 months in the US I visited her twice. This year I'm here for two weeks, and I plan to return later this year. She'll go to Brazil in the summer to solve visa issues for the PhD and later for Christmas.

I won't bet.

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Right now she's about to decide whether a J-1 visa, that'd allow me to work with a J-2 visa (after going through some loopholes) or a F-1 visa, that'd be slightly better for her (optional practical training and an easier path to H1-B).

I give you guys a 40% chance of making it: she’s going to be away for around 5 years, in an environment where she’s likely to meet other like-minded people during an intense period of her life, and you have little chance of being in the same place (you seem to like your job and it seems a source of pride for you, I don’t think you would like it survive being a SAH, and you’re very unlikely to find a job+visa in the US without a master’s).

The open relationship is hard to assess: it can be a huge source of instability and long-distance it’s easy for the priorities to switch (she starts sleeping with John her classmate, and over time he becomes more central); but it can also provide flexibility if you manage it well.

But I’m going to bet Yes because I want to believe in the power of first love, and because if I bet No, I won’t see my money until 2032 and there’s a good chance you’ll abandon the market and it’ll be resolved N/A by an admin.

Edit: had the wrong year

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@Santiago I guess the main pushback I'd give to you is that since starting our ENM, It made us clearer for us how special our thing is, giving how hard it is to find good people. For example, she want to 8 dates this year and didn't evolve with anyone. Obviously, being an actual PhD student in an actual university versus being a pre-doc at an "university" like NYU is different.

@Santiago but I'm willing to give mods options to solve the market even if I churn Manifold (although I am a weekly active user since summer 2022)

I’m voting yes with hope for ongoing evolution towards a unified residence and lifelong marriage ❤️

Once she’s successful in the PhD program she may become eligible for H1-B which may accelerate your options to work in the US if you decide to make your joint home here.

can you join her in the US if you were to marry? I'm not familiar with the options to bring a partner on a visa if your stay is based on study. is that what you mean by moving to the US as a stay at home husband?

@shankypanky students can definitely bring spouses to the US, but they aren't allowed to work anyhow (F-2 visa) or they are allowed to work in very limited ways (J-2 visa). It's likely she'll get a F-1 visa, therefore if I marry her in the following months, I could live in the US during her studies, but I couldn't work (even WFH for a Brazilian employer)

@shankypanky now you can bet, hehe

bought Ṁ55 YES

@MP you're right, I'm in and I'm hopeful for you two (if that's what you both want and continue wanting!) :)