This market resolves to YES if we officially marry under some jurisdiction and we have a shared home where we expect to live the vast majority of our time in both the near and long term.

This market resolves to NO ahead of time if we officially break up and continue broken for 6 months.

This market resolves to NO on Dec 31st 2032.

I'll provide updates over time and I encourage bettors to ask me questions.

We're both 25yo Brazilians who meet during the first year of our undergrad in Applied Math at Rio de Janeiro. We started our relationship in July 2017 and we're basically the first relationship of each other. She gets along well with my parents and I get along well with her parents and relatives.

In 2020, in the last year of college, we moved together just before the pandemic. After spending one month of lockdown with our parents (I'm from São Paulo country-side, she's from Minas Gerais country-side), we decided to go back to our apartment. In July 2020 I started working in a well-paid job in a long-only asset manager which allowed us to move to a two-bedroom apartment near the Leblon beach in Rio in February 2021. She started her MSc. At the time in Applied Math and I continued working at the firm, which I still do.

In January 2022, we adopted to cats: Pixel and Teddy.

In early 2023, she got a exchange program offer to spend 3 months at NYU. I decided I didn't need a two-bedroom apartment for myself and moved to live with two friends in a shared apartment at Ipanema Beach. She spent three months at NYU, during the time she was declined in all her PhD in the US applications. She got a research fellow offer from NYU, but due to visa issues, had to spend 6 months in Brazil. She spent most of it in my shared apartment. In October 2023 she moved back to the US. In January 2024 she got ab acceptance for the PHD from three unis, including UPenn, which I think she'll accept. She plans to move to Philadelphia later this year.

We have an open relationship (hyrarchical) for one year and an understanding that after her PhD, living together will be a priority. She understands that I want to have a career independent of hers.

I make $70k (PPI-converted in Brazil, but my feelings is that is understates substantially) and I hold equity in the asset manager, which could be valued substantially. I like my work.

Reunification options include: me getting a job in the US (Seems hard given H1-B and curriculum constraints), me joining some school in the US (I once wanted to be an academic before joining finance), me just moving to the US to be a stay at home husband, or she getting a job in Brazil.

Last year when she spent 6 months in the US I visited her twice. This year I'm here for two weeks, and I plan to return later this year. She'll go to Brazil in the summer to solve visa issues for the PhD and later for Christmas.

I won't bet.