If the Netherlands has a referendum on leaving the EU, will it favor leaving?
25
1kṀ11502027
12%
chance
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One of Geert Wilder's desires if he becomes PM is a referendum on the Netherlands' EU membership.
Wilders’ election program includes calls for a referendum on the Netherlands leaving the European Union, a total halt to accepting asylum-seekers and migrant pushbacks at Dutch borders.
Resolves N/A if such a referendum does not happen before 2027. Resolves YES if over 50% of the popular vote votes for leaving the EU (even if a different threshold is chosen or aggregation is done at some district level). Resolves NO if less than 50% favor leaving. If it's literally exactly equal to the vote, I'll resolve to 50%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Some relevant discussion here: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/major-state-exits-eu-before-2027/
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