Carbon Brief Forecast: If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?

Question

If Trump wins the US 2024 election, what will the United States' total carbon footprint be in 2030?

Carbon Brief estimates that a Trump win could add 4 billion tons of CO2 to US emissions by 2030:

[image]I will use Our World in Data's Annual CO2 emissions dataset. In 2022, OWID reported a total emissions of 5.06 billion tons. Global Carbon Budget estimates a 3% decrease for 2023 to 4.9 billion tons, although official numbers are not yet reported.

If Trump does not win the US 2024 elections, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise:

If the total number for 2030 is 4.5 billion tons or lower, this market resolves YES.

If the total number for 2030 is higher than 4.5 billion tons, this market resolves NO.

I'll use the exact number reported in the table view, not the rounded one that is seen on hover. This market will remain open until the number is added to OWID, or the backing data source, Global Carbon Budget (https://globalcarbonbudget.org/).

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 44% chance (64 traders, as of Mar 24, 2026).