This market predicts the total global CO2 emissions for 2024, including emissions from fossil fuels, industry and land-use changes. It will resolve based on the data presented in this graph from Our World in Data, rounded to one decimal place. The figures presented by Our World in Data are derived from the Global Carbon Budget dataset. Final data for 2024 are expected to be published in November 2025.
If necessary, I will add new answers to ensure there are always at least 10 answers above and below the one with the highest odds.
The same market for the year after:
:
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1 |
People are also trading
https://globalcarbonbudget.org/download/2392/?tmstv=1762819035
page 4, I see
"Total CO2 emissions were 42.4 GtCO2 in 2024, with a slightly lower preliminary estimate of 42.2
GtCO2 in 2025, but with large uncertainty precluding additional interpretation. The rise in fossil CO2
emissions in 2025 is compensated by the decline in land-use change CO2 emissions."
The source give is Our world in data, just not sure where they got the 43.18 Gt figure.
(Looking through the graphs https://globalcarbonbudget.org/download/2403/?tmstv=1762895658
I see the 42.2 Gt for 2025 on page 49, the same number as in key messages paragraph quoted above. We are interested in the number for 2024 but the graph seems to support a number nearer 42.4 than 43.2)
@ChristopherRandles You are right concerning the data from the global carbon budget. But the source for resolution of this market is the graph from Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/co2?hideControls=false&Gas+or+Warming=CO%E2%82%82&Accounting=Territorial&Fuel+or+Land+Use+Change=Fossil+%2B+land+use+change&Count=Per+country&country=~OWID_WRL
@ConservationForecasts Yes, I am not complaining about the resolution.
Just wondering where the 43.18 figure came from.
@ChristopherRandles I'm also wondering. Below the graph from Our World in Data there is a long explanation "How this dataset is constructed", but I didn't find a cause for the difference..