Will the World's GDP double in 10 years?
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29
Ṁ2515
2034
25%
chance

We will resolve it at the closing time to "No" if there's no year with growth over 7% or insufficient growth for the GDP to have doubled.
Otherwise, I will have to wait for official statistics to resolve this.

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Nominal or real?

@PGeyer Nominal.

@FlorinSays This also got me thinking about inflation in the next 10 years: https://manifold.markets/FlorinSays/will-the-world-economy-experience-a

predicts YES

Also, would you early stop this market if the world's GDP has doubled already in, say, 5 years, or would you wait to see if the economy shrinks again?

@RationalHippy It would resolve as "Yes" if that were to happen as soon as the official statistics are in.

What do you mean exactly by your quick resolution criteria? In order to know that there was no year with growth over 7%, you would have to wait for the last year. Did I misunderstand something?

@RationalHippy there's a math shortcut that helps you estimate the amount of cycles you need or the percentage required for this to happen: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rule-of-70.asp

So, for ten years, we would need around 7% growth each year for the GDP to double. For five years, this is around 14%. (70/10=7; 70/5=14)

We don't need to calculate everything if we don't have at least one year with that growth rate.

predicts YES

@FlorinSays OK I think I understand, this is a resolution that still happens in 2034 when all the numbers are in. The term "quick resolution" threw me off.

@RationalHippy I mean that we could probably resolve this at closing time without waiting for all the data to be there.

@RationalHippy I updated the description to make it more clear.

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