We will resolve it at the closing time to "No" if there's no year with growth over 7% or insufficient growth for the GDP to have doubled.
Otherwise, I will have to wait for official statistics to resolve this.
@FlorinSays This also got me thinking about inflation in the next 10 years: https://manifold.markets/FlorinSays/will-the-world-economy-experience-a
@RationalHippy It would resolve as "Yes" if that were to happen as soon as the official statistics are in.
@RationalHippy You can also use this https://manifold.markets/FlorinSays/will-the-worlds-gdp-double-in-5-yea for the shorter period.
@RationalHippy there's a math shortcut that helps you estimate the amount of cycles you need or the percentage required for this to happen: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rule-of-70.asp
So, for ten years, we would need around 7% growth each year for the GDP to double. For five years, this is around 14%. (70/10=7; 70/5=14)
We don't need to calculate everything if we don't have at least one year with that growth rate.
@FlorinSays OK I think I understand, this is a resolution that still happens in 2034 when all the numbers are in. The term "quick resolution" threw me off.
@RationalHippy I mean that we could probably resolve this at closing time without waiting for all the data to be there.