Will the World GDP rise or fall by at least 10% year over year in at least one of the next 20 years?
30
84
1k
2043
61%
chance

Inclusive or.

E. g. 2028->2029 +12% or 2032->2033 -16%

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predicts YES

What factors contribute to world GDP? (Me: handwaving “International economic systems and, uh, regulatory dynamics—“)

predicts YES

@TamarSpoerri But seriously, I suck at economics. Can someone explain or point me to resources that explain what makes volatility more likely?

predicts YES

@TamarSpoerri I'm personally looking at this as a AGI/WW3 market, plus a percent or two for a runaway global warming feedback loop or some other revolutionary technology.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

See base rate here. The biggest Δ%s have been the following:

2020->2021 +9.1 Rebound from COVID-19

2009->2010 +5.8 Rebound from the housing market collapse

2019->2020 -5.7 COVID-19 pandemic

1975->1976 +4.7 Rebound from the oil crisis

1973->1974 -4.6 Oil crisis

2008->2009 -3.4 Housing market collapse

predicts YES

@TamarSpoerri Of these values where Δ>3, 4/6 of them were in the last twenty years.

predicts YES

@TamarSpoerri Note that my attribution of the 2007-2009 financial crisis to the housing market collapse is an oversimplification and one narrative of many.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@TamarSpoerri Except for COVID these are all relatively far from 10%, no? What’s the argument for YES based on this data?

predicts YES

@NicoDelon True. The argument for YES is extrapolating from this dataset that world GDP volatility will continue to increase.

predicts NO

@TamarSpoerri Oh ok. I see.

predicts YES

@TamarSpoerri Found a graph with annual change! (source)

Whats YES

@Planarian Exactly as the question says, if you think GDP will either rise or fall by at least 10% YoY (in at least one year), thats YES.

@LightLawliet ah its a volatility question