Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2040?
41
1.9k
2040
30%
chance

Economic growth is measured by the increase in a country's production of goods and services over a period. When taken at a global scale, this is known as the Gross World Product (GWP). Historically, GWP growth has been relatively steady, with notable fluctuations due to global events. The question posed is whether there will be a substantial, unprecedented growth in GWP – specifically, if GWP during any prior to 2040 will exceed 130% of the highest GWP recorded in any previous year.

Before 2040, will the Gross World Product (GWP) for any single year exceed 130% of the maximum GWP recorded for any year prior to that?

Resolution Criteria:

  1. Measurement Definition: For the purposes of this question, the Gross World Product (GWP) is defined as the combined gross national product of all the countries in the world for a given year. It represents the market value of all final goods and services produced globally in a single year.

  2. Calculation: To resolve positively, the GWP for any single year prior to 2040 must be greater than 130% of the highest GWP recorded for any year prior to the year in question.

    Example: If the maximum GWP recorded by the end of 2025 is $100 trillion, then for the question to resolve positively for the year of 2026, the GWP for that year would need to exceed $130 trillion.

  3. Data Sources: The resolution will rely on data provided by established and credible financial institutions and organizations. The primary sources will include:

    a. The World Bank: Known for its comprehensive economic databases and reports, including the World Development Indicators.

    b. International Monetary Fund (IMF): Specifically, the World Economic Outlook (WEO) database, which provides data on macroeconomic indicators, including GWP.

    c. United Nations (UN): Particularly the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, which releases annual reports on global economic indicators.

  4. Resolution Process: The question will resolve positively if any year's GWP prior to 2040, as reported by any of the aforementioned institutions, or an alternative highly credible institution, exceeds 130% of the peak GWP of all preceding years. If no such increase is recorded before 2040, the question will resolve negatively.

  5. Caveats and Adjustments: The data must be adjusted for inflation, ensuring that nominal values are not misleadingly high due to general price level changes. I reserve the right to exclude sources if I do not deem their figures reliable.

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