Will a new UK party (including Reform) gain over 1% of the national vote share in the next UK election?
19
62
Ṁ834Ṁ390
May 6
88%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Includes Reform or any new parties.
Does not include ChangeUK
Get Ṁ200 play money
More related questions
Related questions
Will the next UK government post-election receive over 50% of votes?
28% chance
Will an independent candidate win at least 1 seat at the next UK general election?
75% chance
Will Labour win a Majority in the next election?
90% chance
Will the Labour party win the next UK general elections?
86% chance
Will the Tories win the next general election?
9% chance
Will any party win more than 50% of the votes at the next UK general election?
9% chance
Will the Scottish National Party get more than 50% of the vote share in Scotland in the next UK general election?
3% chance
Will a new UK political party gain 50+ seats by the end of 2028? (In the house of commons)
20% chance
Will the UK Conservative party win the next election?
5% chance
Will Labour Party win 2025 UK election?
85% chance