Related: https://manifold.markets/Hedgehog/how-many-housing-units-will-be-buil

Sold my YES shares after learning more about this.

So far there have only been a handful of developers who have even tried to use the housing element, to my knowledge. Four put in applications in Santa Monica last year and one developer in La Habra.

To me that signals there could be some significant developments, but I would not bet on <$100b worth of developments through the builder's remedy.

There is still a lot of uncertainty about how easy it will be for developers to use it. In spite of the uncertainty, most cities are scrambling to get compliant housing elements approved. If there are court cases which do clear the way for the builder's remedy, I think cities will work even harder to get compliant.

In the process of compliance, perhaps they'll permit more housing through their zoning rules. So that might be an indirect effect of cities failing their housing element (i.e. cities see how bad it went for a few cities who failed initially, so they get their acts together in response) but that would be pretty hard to causally connect, and housing elements don't actually have to permit housing for several years anyway, so I don't see >$100b of housing by 2025 through that route either.

FWIW I'm betting no here because of CEQA challenge risks. My best guess is that NIMBYs have enough recourse under CEQA to both stall a lot of builders' remedy projects and to deter many from being started.

https://www.planetizen.com/news/2022/11/119527-court-ruling-setback-californias-builders-remedy

@Matthew4115 Agreed that this is a likely reason many of the projects won't happen. However, I think a lot of the impact won't be from the builder's remedy itself, but rather that the threat of the builder's remedy is already forcing cities to pass housing elements that plan for a lot more housing than they otherwise would have. While there are many uncertainties about what happens under builder's remedy, many cities would prefer to avoid taking that chance.

Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Katja Grace

@natalia__coelho https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/sf-failing-its-housing-element-is-g

Hey @Conflux if you feel hard done by here, let me know

@NathanpmYoung dw about it - I just did a quickbet without thinking about this market much at all, since I figure if there are 0 bettors it's probably profitable to do that

isn't it already a colossal deal?

Did SF fail its housing element? https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/S-F-s-plan-to-build-82-000-housing-units-has-17736034.php