At close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.
21
64
1.4k
2123
86%
chance

Ex post. Ie using all the knowledge we have at the time! So if the increased wealth starts a war that noone could have forseen, this still resolves negatilvely.

Rolling 1000 on a 1-1000 randomiser will resolve.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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Roll for 2024: 997

I assume this will be resolved via a poll of Manifold users?

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