At close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.

Basic

21

Ṁ1.5k2123

86%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Ex post. Ie using all the knowledge we have at the time! So if the increased wealth starts a war that noone could have forseen, this still resolves negatilvely.

Rolling 1000 on a 1-1000 randomiser will resolve.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

## Related questions

## Related questions

One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?

64% chance

What percentage of Manifold users will consider themselves "woke" on Nov 1, 2024?

27% chance

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

49% chance

5️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ Will Manifold users that respond to the poll asking if it will reach 500 votes by EOY 2024 predict correctly?

47% chance

Will I ever be net positive (real money) on Manifold before 2030?

32% chance

Will Manifold allow questions to be resolved by a poll of random users before 2025?

40% chance

Will Manifold significantly improve discovery in 2024? (resolves based on a poll)

69% chance

🗳️💭What will Manifold's Approval Rating be at end of Q4 2024? [Poll Index]

47% chance

Vitalik funded me to make a Polis-style feature for Manifold and the LessWrong/EA Forum. In Jan 2024, what % of people will say in a twitter poll that this was a good idea?

38% chance

🗳️💭What will Manifold's Approval Rating be at end of Q3 2024? [Poll Index]

56% chance