AI will commonly be used to code simple apps by the end of the following years:
20
1.1kṀ12362029
22%
2024
48%
2025
17%
2026
6%
2027
4%
2028
3%
Normal people will type a simple description and usable web app will come out the end. Like Sora for video but coding.
Prompts might include:
A pomodoro timer
A kanban board
A calendar booking app
A way to search manifold markets
Resolve the first year to which this is the case.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Will AI agents be able to regularly code small features for us in a year?
83% chance
Neural Nets will be able to design, code and distribute whole apps by the end of 2025.
30% chance
Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?
69% chance
At end of 2025, one of the top five software engineering AIs will be exclusively used by 100 or fewer tech companies
26% chance
AI will generate coherent 5-min films by the end of 2025
64% chance
Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027
34% chance
Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033
59% chance
On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?
43% chance
By 2030, will over 50% of software development projects be primarily created by AI, with minimal human coding?
56% chance
AI for AI 1: By when will there be an AI that can do "intern-level" ML engineering?
Sort by:
Is this market talking about the capability existing, or people finding it valuable and having a significant number of people doing it.
My position is that most simple app ideas have already been created, and people will always find the barrier of using AI to create a new app to be higher than simply searching.
@DanHomerick I think it's like sora. People can unambiguously make short videos from a prompt. That isn't true of apps.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will AI agents be able to regularly code small features for us in a year?
83% chance
Neural Nets will be able to design, code and distribute whole apps by the end of 2025.
30% chance
Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?
69% chance
At end of 2025, one of the top five software engineering AIs will be exclusively used by 100 or fewer tech companies
26% chance
AI will generate coherent 5-min films by the end of 2025
64% chance
Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027
34% chance
Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033
59% chance
On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?
43% chance
By 2030, will over 50% of software development projects be primarily created by AI, with minimal human coding?
56% chance
AI for AI 1: By when will there be an AI that can do "intern-level" ML engineering?