AI will commonly be used to code simple apps by the end of the following years:
20
1.1kṀ12362029
22%
2024
48%
2025
17%
2026
6%
2027
4%
2028
3%
Normal people will type a simple description and usable web app will come out the end. Like Sora for video but coding.
Prompts might include:
A pomodoro timer
A kanban board
A calendar booking app
A way to search manifold markets
Resolve the first year to which this is the case.
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Is this market talking about the capability existing, or people finding it valuable and having a significant number of people doing it.
My position is that most simple app ideas have already been created, and people will always find the barrier of using AI to create a new app to be higher than simply searching.
@DanHomerick I think it's like sora. People can unambiguously make short videos from a prompt. That isn't true of apps.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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