Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033
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It may later be succeeded by other technologies, but it should be a thing for a period of at least 6 months.

10% of people regularly doing it will serve as an anchor for the definition of "common", but I don't expect to have this clean data when resolving, and will be vaguely estimating based on this.

It may be wrapped in a no-code user interface, as long as there is still a very general coding AI behind it.

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The accessibility and user-friendliness of AI tools and platforms were steadily increasing, making it easier for non-programmers to create small scripts and utilize AI in their daily activities. However, predicting the precise state of AI adoption by non-programmers by 2033 involves speculation, considering the pace of technological advancements and societal shifts. Nevertheless, we can make an educated assessment based on current trends and potential future developments:

  1. Increased Accessibility and User-Friendliness: AI tools and platforms are likely to become even more accessible and user-friendly by 2033. This trend will likely continue, driven by advancements in user interface design, natural language processing, and automation technologies. Non-programmers will find it easier to interact with AI systems, create scripts, and integrate AI capabilities into their workflows without extensive programming knowledge.

  2. Widespread Integration in Various Domains: AI technology is expected to permeate various domains, including healthcare, education, finance, agriculture, and more. As AI becomes more prevalent in these sectors, there will be a growing demand for user-friendly tools that enable non-programmers to leverage AI for tasks such as data analysis, decision-making, automation, and prediction.

  3. Industry-Specific Solutions: Companies and organizations will likely develop industry-specific AI solutions tailored to the needs of non-programmers for ytmp3. These solutions may come in the form of specialized software platforms, mobile applications, or cloud-based services that offer pre-built AI models and templates for common tasks. Non-programmers can then customize these solutions to suit their specific requirements without writing code.

  4. Education and Training Initiatives: Educational initiatives aimed at promoting AI literacy among non-programmers will play a crucial role in driving adoption. By 2033, there may be widespread efforts to incorporate AI education into school curricula, vocational training programs, and continuing education courses. As a result, more individuals will acquire the necessary knowledge and skills to create small scripts and utilize AI tools effectively.

  5. Community and Peer Support: Online communities, forums, and knowledge-sharing platforms will continue to facilitate collaboration and support among non-programmers interested in AI. These platforms will serve as valuable resources for learning, troubleshooting, and sharing best practices for ytmp3. Peer support and community-driven initiatives will empower individuals to overcome challenges and explore the full potential of AI in their everyday lives and work.

  6. Regulatory and Ethical Considerations: As AI becomes more integrated into daily life, there will be increasing attention to regulatory frameworks and ethical guidelines governing its use. Non-programmers engaging with AI tools and scripts will need to be aware of privacy concerns, data security issues, bias mitigation strategies, and other ethical considerations. Regulatory bodies and industry associations may develop standards and guidelines to ensure responsible AI usage by non-experts.

In summary, while predicting the exact landscape of AI adoption by non-programmers in 2033 is challenging, it's reasonable to anticipate significant progress in accessibility, education, and community support surrounding AI technology. With the right tools, training, and support structures in place, non-programmers are likely to increasingly integrate AI into their everyday work and life through the creation of small scripts and the utilization of AI-powered solutions.

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sold Ṁ148 of YES

Common, or possible?

Possible. Done, esp with plugins, you can have code checkers, validators.

Common? Doubt it. Most people don't care much about scripting.

@firstuserhere what % of population of the world even works in tech? Doubt it's 10% (my prior without doing any search)

predicts YES

@firstuserhere they don't need to create explicit scripts, you'd make a service where people sign up and say "please bet on this market on manifold when it reaches 98%" and the service creates automation behind the scenes. The users don't need to understand or even be aware of how it works. It just does

@firstuserhere that's something that existing software already does behind the scenes. That's what all the design of Ui is all about where you just click a button and complex operations and scripts and programs run behind the scene and you just get a ping, that the thing has been done, without info about HOW

@firstuserhere oh i misread the question as 2023 Instead of 2033.

predicts YES

@firstuserhere I mean the software in this case would be written on the fly, that is not what currently happens

bought Ṁ50 of YES

The new ChatGPT "Code Interpreter" plugin makes writing and executing scripts automatic. https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt-plugins#code-interpreter

OpenAI says, "We would like our models to be able to use their programming skills to provide a much more natural interface to most fundamental capabilities of our computers. Having access to a very eager junior programmer working at the speed of your fingertips can make completely new workflows effortless and efficient, as well as open the benefits of programming to new audiences.

You can watch the demo in the link above or watch Matt Wolfe gush about it on YouTube (https://youtu.be/ZSfwgKDcGKY).

I bet "yes" because I think that this will count. @tailcalled, let me know if this is not included in what you're talking about.

@EricMoyer Yes, this counts under the "It may be wrapped in a no-code user interface, as long as there is still a very general coding AI behind it." rule, as long as ChatGPT ends up having a lot of users.

predicts YES

@tailcalled Thank you. Also, would 10% of US/European working adults count? Or does it need to be 10% of all people (not just working adults), and worldwide? I was assuming national since you mentioned GDP in another response.

@EricMoyer Oh, that's a good question.

Regarding worldwide vs national, I think I had US/Euro people in mind because I am hopelessly focused on my local part of the world, but the question phrasing doesn't mention anything about that.

I hope this doesn't make too much of a difference. China's internet penetration is high and rising, and India's internet penetration is very rapidly rising. If the world's internet penetration keeps going up as fast as it has done the past 10 years, it will be like 90% by the time of the resolution of the market.

But to give a concrete answer, since we seem to be 2 people who had US/Euro people in mind, that's evidence that most people who encountered this question had US/Euro people in mind, and so if it comes down to it I will be going for US/Euro people.

Re working adults vs all people, I think the category I had in mind was "teens + working adults", but this is kind of a nonsense category to use and probably mainly a result of me being a young adult who spent most of my teens programming. I guess the title of the question denotes all people but connotes working adults, so I will go by the connotation if it is ambiguous.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

AI is the new it,
For scripts without a fit.
But if you're not a nerd,
Your code will be absurd.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

~750M people use spreadsheets, AI scripting with GPT-4 is already easier and more general purpose (though in a number of ways less powerful, due to a complexity ceiling) than spreadsheets today.

Ask me anything about resolution criteria if you want it to be less ambiguous.

I probably won't commit to a specific criterion but I can help provide anchors.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

@tailcalled size of AI scripting market >1% gdp

@MarkIngraham When I hear the term "AI scripting market", I picture some market that provides relatively standardized small scripts, created by AIs. This seems potentially relevant to the dynamics deacribed in the article this post was based on, but it doesn't seem relevant to the title of this question, so I would lean towards saying that this question will not be resolved based on the size of the AI scripting market. Unless the AI scripting market is more individualized than discussed here, in which case it could reasonably be said to count under the "It may be wrapped in a no-code user interface".

I think I would be prone to saying >0.5% of gdp, rather than 1%, but that is a small change. More significantly, we cpuld imagine that it has a substantial effect even while only making up a tiny fraction of the GDP if it ends up capturing only a tiny fraction of the value it creates. So I might not judge by %GDP at all.

predicts NO

@tailcalled correct way is to break this down into parts, like "a ai user polling from Gallup will exist by x year"

@MarkIngraham Not sure what you mean by "break this down into parts" or "ai user polling from Gallup".

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