When will an AI develop, maintain and evolve by itself a full web application?
Mini
4
130
2055
10%
2025
10%
2026
10%
2028
10%
2030
10%
2034
10%
2038
10%
2046
10%
2054
17%
after 2054

The question will resolve when it has been fully documented in a reproducible way how an AI has created a web application, corrected bugs after they're found and added features to the existing application. The application must have at least 100 active users in any 28 days window during a full year when the AI is fixing and evolving the application according to bug reports and feature requests. During that year, at least 4 new features should be added and 20 bugs fixed.

The application must be at least 2K lines of code with at least 200 lines of business logic, at the start of that year. It could be either an HTTP API or an HTML application, or both.

The documentation must be all the prompts used to create the code, along with the code, and the code must be only the result of using those prompts (and it must be possible to reuse the prompts to produce, if not the exact same code if the AI is not deterministic, at least code that is an application providing the same features). The code may not include every configuration detail to deploy it, in the same way that a professional operations team might not expect a development team to provide those kinds of details. The prompts should not contain any code that has not been produced by the AI in previous prompts, except for code that is an example of sending requests to the application.

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There is vaporware already: https://githubnext.com/projects/speclang/

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