This market made in response to this article. Quote:
"

• One-hour AGI: Beating humans at problem sets/exams, composing short articles or blog posts, executing most tasks in white-collar jobs (e.g., diagnosing patients, providing legal opinions), conducting therapy, etc.

• One-day AGI: Beating humans at negotiating business deals, developing new apps, running scientific experiments, reviewing scientific papers, summarizing books, etc.

• One-month AGI: Beating humans at carrying out medium-term plans coherently (e.g., founding a startup), supervising large projects, becoming proficient in new fields, writing large software applications (e.g., a new operating system), making novel scientific discoveries, etc.

• One-year AGI: These AIs would beat humans at basically everything. Mainly because most projects can be divided into sub-tasks that can be completed in shorter timeframes.

  Although it is more formal than the definitions provided in the previous section, the (t,n)-AGI framework does not account for how many copies of the AI run simultaneously, or how much compute.

  As of the third quarter of 2023, we can establish a rough equivalence “from informal initial experiments, our guess is that humans need about three minutes per problem to be overall as useful as GPT-4 when playing the role of trusted high-quality labor.”(source) So existing systems can roughly be believed to qualify as one-second AGIs, and are considered to be nearing the level of one-minute AGIs. 

  They might be a few years away from becoming one-hour AGIs.

  "

I took objection to the article stating "might be a few years away". To me, that implies probably at least more than 2 years, perhaps more like 10 years. I think it will be less than 2 years. So here I am, putting my money where my mouth is.

Edit:

Based on questions asked, here are some more details:

This is AI (plus any tools the human is granted, e.g. web search, but excluding other AI) versus human (web search, code ide, and calculator, but no explicit AI).

Secret knowledge that the human has which the AI can't look up on the web wouldn't count. This is about ability rather than knowledge.

The human for the comparison should be an above-average, competent professional, but not a remarkable genius.

• Update 2025-03-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:

  • The comparison is between:

  • AI (including tools such as web search, excluding other AI)

  • Human (equipped with web search, code IDE, and calculator, but no explicit AI)

  • The tasks considered are those that a competent professional can perform on a computer within one hour.

  • The market resolves YES if the state-of-the-art (SotA) AI can perform any of these tasks with high reliability, where the failure rate is comparable to that of a competent human.