I’m actually so curious, why does everyone think that China will not invade or blockade Taiwan this year? It seems like every day there is a story out of China acting aggressive towards Taiwan. I mean nobody thought that Russia would invade Ukraine until they did, even though the signs were all there. Why do you all think this is different?

especially you @jack. You appear to be a downright clairvoyant.

@NathanDickson China has been acting aggressive toward Taiwan for years, and people have been predicting invasion for years (decades even), so that's not new. There's a good chance they'll invade in the next decade or so, but I believe very little chance this year - from what I've read their military simply isn't ready for an amphibious invasion like that. And a blockade doesn't really seem like a better option, as it has a pretty high chance of escalating into full war, and gives their opponents time and political capital to prepare for that war.

All the signs were there for Russia invading Ukraine, indeed. And those signs are very much not there for China invading Taiwan - in the short term. I think this is a good example of the power of prediction markets. The prediction markets had Russia invading Ukraine at 30%+ in the ~2 months preceding the invasion (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8898/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-before-2023/). The prediction markets have China invading Taiwan at 2% this year, and 30% in the next 10 years https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/

@jack Thanks for the reply I appreciate it. I am just curious how it would go down. If it does happen I think I am going to short the nasdaq. I think people don’t realize how much our quality of life will go down if that happened.

I work in aerospace, and when Russia invaded Ukraine we had a very difficult time getting microchips. We had to order several chips 70 weeks in advance. I think that would happen way more widespread in Taiwan because computer chips are their thing.

@jack I guess we know what to look for if it is anything like Ukraine

@NathanDickson A lot of stocks would go down 50% overnight and probably down 90% within a month if China invaded Taiwan. Ie NVDA, AMD.