Will Israel allow settlements in Gaza before 2025?
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Plus
19
Ṁ4098
Jan 2
3%
chance

In 2005 Israel withdrew from Gaza, and all settlements in Gaza were evacuated. This question seeks to ask if this step will be reversed by the current conflict.

Resolves YES if one or more settlement of Israeli Jewish civilians, similar to those existing before 2005, exists in Gaza before 2025. To resolve YES, the settlement must have 25 or more people and last at least 30 days, and must not be secret or subject to armed hostilities with Israeli forces such as raids or a siege in that time.

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predicts NO

possible arbitrarge (don't think it will likely happen in '25, '26, '27 if it doesn't in '24)

https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-israel-build-any-settlements-i?r=U2h1bXA

predicts NO

Israeli public opinion is WAY against it.

https://twitter.com/HeTows/status/1723816346016710824

I'd love to hear the reasoning behind someone who bought "yes"

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