Which quadrant in the tweet below will we end up in? Assume that core inflation is measured by the CPI. Assume that "unemployment" refers to the U-3 unemployment rate published by the BLS.

Fine print:

Note that the inflation condition is based on an annualized rate. The annualized core inflation in 2023-H2 is defined as follows for the purposes of this question: ((Core CPI in Dec 2023)/(Core CPI in June 2023))^2 - 1.

This question will resolve as soon as we first get the relevant unemployment and inflation data for December 2023. If for any reason any relevant data for a prior month is revised before then, I will use the revised version. I will not use any revisions made after that.