So far all full stack Starship launches have launched from pad A, and all booster catches have been performed by tower A. But construction at the nearby Pad B continues and Ryan Hansen has recently speculated that the first ship catch attempt could involve a launch and booster catch at Pad A, but a ship catch using tower B (see the following twitter thread for his reasoning)
This question resolves based on the first official flight plan that SpaceX releases featuring a ship catch and is not concerned with any flight outcomes.
1,000@ChristopherRandles My understanding of what Ryan Hansen is proposing is that the chopsticks on Tower A aren't compatible with the ship catch pins that we've seen so far.
Hence the main prediction is specifically that the first Starship catch will be on Tower B. A launch from Pad A and booster catch on Tower A are further speculation with their own reasoning.
And though I agree requiring all three criteria is a very specific plan and a very strict resolution criteria, the reasoning Ryan gave seemed sound enough that it would make an interesting market!
(Definitely open to feedback though, I very nearly used a more relaxed criteria when first making the market)