Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2030, Manifold Markets establishes a central bank or a banking apparatus that performs functions such as issuing currency, regulating monetary policy, or overseeing financial institutions. Official announcements from Manifold Markets or credible news sources will serve as the basis for resolution.

Background

Manifold Markets is a platform that facilitates prediction markets, allowing users to bet on various outcomes. As of now, it does not operate as a financial institution with central banking functions. Central banks typically manage a nation's currency, money supply, and interest rates, and may also oversee the commercial banking system. (federalreserve.gov)

Considerations

The establishment of a central bank by a private entity like Manifold Markets would be unprecedented and may require significant regulatory approvals and structural changes. Additionally, the evolving landscape of digital currencies and decentralized finance could influence the feasibility and nature of such an initiative. (bis.org)