Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the Labour Party candidate (Sagal Abdi-Wali) wins the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election scheduled for October 8, 2026. It will resolve to NO if any other candidate wins the seat.

The outcome will be verified using the official election results published by Camden Council.

Background

The 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election was triggered on September 1, 2026, following the resignation of former Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer as the Member of Parliament for the constituency. Starmer, who stood down as Prime Minister earlier in 2026, announced he was vacating his parliamentary seat to focus on international affairs.

The constituency has been held by the Labour Party since its creation in 1983. For the October 8 by-election, Labour has selected Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali. Key challengers include Green Party leader Zack Polanski, the Conservative Party's Ewan Cameron, and George Galloway representing the Workers Party.