When if ever will unrestricted GPT-4/Grok 3/DeepSeek-R1 level models result in at least one WMD fatality?
8
1kṀ2489
Jul 1
69%
After 2035
49%
Only after superintelligence is achieved
45%
2031-2035
35%
2029-2030
20%
2027-2028
15%
2026
10%
July-Dec 2025

Inspired by this Twitter/X thread, but others have expressed similar concerns.

"WMD" is here defined as a nuclear, radiological, chemical, or biological weapon. The attack does not need to be successful, just result in at least one death (e.g. the aspiring terrorist accidentally gasses themselves.)

"Unrestricted" is here defined as any LLM that will help with planning a WMD attack, whether because it was not designed to refuse such a request, was verbally persuaded/jailbroken to do so, was fine-tuned by someone to do so, etc.

I'll try to be generous regarding whether access to the LLM "resulted in" the attack. Unless it's extremely clear that the perpetrator(s) could have accomplished it on their own (e.g. a professional chemist using an LLM to speed up ordering glassware for their chemical weapons project), any use of an LLM will resolve YES.

I've left the ability to add options open if anyone feels these bands are too wide.

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