Will Claude 3 outrank GPT-4-1106-preview on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard?
57
600
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resolved Mar 21
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if any Claude 3 model outranks GPT-4-1106-preview at any point within two weeks of first being listed, i.e. if users prefer Claude 3 responses to GPT-4 responses at any point.

https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard

For a version that includes any GPT-4 model released during that time, see here: https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/will-claude-3-outrank-gpt4-on-the-l

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For those still interested in the underlying:

bought Ṁ50 YES

There is objective<=>subjective arbitrage possible: https://manifold.markets/axr/will-claude-3-turn-out-to-be-better

@MrMagnolia this can resolve

sold Ṁ820 NO

What happens if claude 3 is not listed in it until april 4?

@2e0e I'll extend the resolution date

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