
Will Gary Marcus tweet at least 10 examples of GPT-4 failure which won't be disproven/fixed within 24 hours? (in 2023)
12
230Ṁ399resolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if Gary Marcus [quote] tweets (retweets without a comment don't count) at least 10 separate times (single thread counts as one) before the end of 2023 an example of a prompt which causes GPT-4 (or another successor SoTA model) to provide a wrong response, which isn't countered with a screenshot / example (e.g. a link) of the model giving a right answer within 24 hours. Example of a counter-tweet below:

Only tweets posted after the market creation and before the market close count (excluding counter-tweets). Positive examples should be posted in comments in order to count. If the counter-tweet is proven to be false/fake it doesn't count, but evidence should also be posted in comments.
Context:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ31 | |
2 | Ṁ28 | |
3 | Ṁ19 | |
4 | Ṁ7 | |
5 | Ṁ5 |
People are also trading
Related questions
How many Tweets will Sam Altman make before announcing the next GPT?
30% chance
Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)
91% chance
Sam Altman publicly brings up GPT5 by September 30, 2025?
90% chance
Which of these 10 things will GPT-5 do? (@flowersslop)
Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029?
64% chance
Will Gary Marcus' legs be turned into paperclips (or similarly affected by AI) before he predicts AGI within 2.5 years?
13% chance
Before 2028, will anyone train a GPT-4-level model in a minute?
14% chance