Resolves Yes if SpaceX builds a Starship launch mount with a flame trench underneath. This can be at Boca Chica, KSC, or wherever they're building a pad.
The intention is to see if SpaceX thinks a water deluge is enough, or if they'll end up going for something more. I'm open to suggestions about corner cases or more precise criteria, it feels a bit thin at the moment.
A flame diverter or deflector would also count. It doesn't have to be a trench specifically.
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Also @Mqrius, when would this market resolve YES? Would it resolve upon SpaceX confirming they're building a trench, upon completion of construction, first functional use, or something else?
Uhhh good question. I guess it's pretty clear by now that they are building a flame trench. I guess it's also pretty clear that the second OLM is a launch mount not just a testing one.
I guess I'd be up for resolving this Yes. @chrisjbillington @Blomfilter @TimDuffy any objections?
seems like they are building it. Go SpaceX!
I would resolve YES upon completion of the build (Assuming it finishes before 2026), but i wont be upset if you have looser definitions of 'build something'
Agree that because of the loan change it makes sense to resolve YES now
At 13:07:
Dodd: "Is there any kind of redesign of the OLM and the booster bidet and all the flame trench and stuff like that?"
Musk: "Yeah it's a total redesign, which, I don't know if we should do a total redesign but the guys really wanna do it so like 'okay'"
Dodd: "Like, it'll have more of a flame trench this time?"
Musk: "Yeah"
Unclear if the second tower will have this full redesign?
Elon talks about the shorter arms (which are on tower 2) as being part of the full redesign, and the discussion followed a question about the second tower specifically so presumably yes?)
Also the way Elon talked about it, it definitely doesn't seem certain that the redesign ends up with 'more of a flame trench' but it does seem likely
Either way, strong update towards YES (imo)
@Mqrius Can you confirm whether a flame trench for a test mount only would cause this to resolve yes? The description says "builds a Starship launch mount with a flame trench" which seems to suggest it's specifically for launch, but I'm not sure.
@TimDuffy Hm, you have a point. When writing the market I didn't anticipate this, and when Zack mentioned the below I thought upon rereading the conditions that it would count. But you have a point that it says "launch" mount, so yeah I guess a test stand with a flame trench shouldn't count. Thanks for double checking!
Berger seems to think that they will build a trench.
SpaceX will have to make some hard decisions now about whether it needs to build a flame trench underneath the rocket to carry away exhaust and heat or whether an upgraded water deluge system can handle the immense amount of thrust from the vehicle. The company will probably end up constructing the former.