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If it fails in April I would assess the odds of anything else as zero.

They already have a low number of launches this year relative to the past.

@MarkIngraham Personally I feel like the FAA might still cause a holdup for like 2 months from now, so June isn't out of the question. If they don't launch in April, what do you think will be the cause for the delay? I can't think of many things that would then give zero odds for May or June.

The low number of Starship launches doesn't mean much to me, since the last times were 10km hops in 2021 with just the second stage. After they succeeded at that, they've simply been in the transition period before being able to launch a first orbital attempt. Presumably at some point they'll launch again.

@Mqrius they launched 8 test flights with 3 engines. The full thing is 33 engines. They failed to manufacture adequate engines and they probably have the capability to fly one starship per year. If there's a delay it's the engines.

Really doubt it — they've been building 1 Raptor per day since about a year ago according to NASA. B7 already has all its raptor engines installed, and B9 is well underway.

It's usually profitable to bet against space timelines, but I really doubt the engine production will be an issue here.

@Mqrius they double count upgrades. It's like how america produced 700 warthogs on Wikipedia and used 160 in the gulf war because there's 4 versions. So tesla made about 100 engines it claims is 300 so it can fly one or two times a year.

That sounds implausible and unsourced. But feel free to vote No I guess