Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur before April 16?
resolved Apr 15

A duplicate of this market, with a different date.

For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.

I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.







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I meant local time but I'm probably asleep at that point so I'll resolve now. If they launch on a Saturday evening with no closures then that'd be a bit of a surprise :)

bought Ṁ100 of NO
bought Ṁ46 of NO
bought Ṁ351 of NO

Guys, Musk is going to launch on 4/20

predicted YES
bought Ṁ25 of YES
predicted NO

Might still happen at a later date after the 10th, but not sure if it will be before the 16th. The 17th is the current rumour.

predicted YES
bought Ṁ5 of YES
bought Ṁ10 of NO
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