Will a Starship orbital flight test occur by the end of April?
53
72
1.1K
resolved Apr 17
Resolved
YES

A duplicate of this market, with a different date.

For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.

I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.

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Live feed + countdown, check!

Now you get to decide if "Starship Flight Test" falls under "or similar".

predicted YES

@BoltonBailey Could you please explicitly confirm that the market refers to the test that is expected to happen soon because apparently they're not going to call it "orbital" like in the examples in the market description: https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-test

@NamesAreHard Yep, this expected test counts.

predicted YES

I agree for all my markets that are like this one, and I think @chrisjbillington would also agree.

predicted NO

If it is delayed at the moment of fueling up? What resolution would it be?

predicted YES

@KongoLandwalker Resolution depends on whether they put a livestream up for the launch, showing the ship and a countdown. If the delay occurs before the stream goes live, and there isn't a subsequent attempt the same day with a livestream, it'll resolve NO. If the stream goes live, the market will resolve YES immediately, as it does not depend on whether the launch is actually successful.

predicted YES

@KongoLandwalker According to the countdown timeline, tanking operations will take place for several hours before launch, and the stream will go live ~45m before launch. Thus, most delays during tanking, if they prove fatal to the attempt, are likely to take place before the stream goes live. Therefore this would likely cause a NO resolution unless there is a second attempt later the same day.

predicted YES

Just to add further, I mistook this for my own market when I answered! The creator of this market may of course have a different view, though we're using identical resolution criteria.

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington thanks for the clarification. In my humble opinion test "happens" if there was an ignition command. Much simpler criteria which does not depend on such arbitrary things as livestreams.

predicted YES

All of us with thee markets all using the same criteria, and that criteria is about whether they intend to test, not whether they succesfully ignite. It makes sense to stick with consistent criteria. If I'd write the criteria from scratch, I'd probably have gone for seeing a livestream with a ticking countdown clock, but just having a livestream live is non-ambiguous enough I think.

You're welcome to create a market that's about whether they ignite, or when they ignite. Those are interesting questions too. These markets are simply about a different question.

bought Ṁ2 of YES

The rockets roar to life
As they climb towards the sky
Will they reach their lofty goals?
Or just come crashing down to die?

predicted NO
predicted NO