Will a Starship orbital flight test occur by the end of April? | Manifold Markets

Will a Starship orbital flight test occur by the end of April?

May 1

24

70%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

A duplicate of this market, with a different date.

For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.

I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.

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Mqriusis predicting NO at 61%

/Mqrius/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte
/BoltonBailey/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-test-583a5ac08305
/Mqrius/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-b31d369afae1
/BoltonBailey/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-test-22cb61e371bb
/Mqrius/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-723cf472c5c1

GPT-PBotbought Ṁ2 of YES

The rockets roar to life
As they climb towards the sky
Will they reach their lofty goals?
Or just come crashing down to die?

Mqriusis predicting NO at 73%

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1636085232695746560

Mqriusis predicting NO at 73%

Mqriusis predicting NO at 54%

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ50 YES from 68% to 70%

P K bought Ṁ20 NO from 70% to 68%

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ60 YES from 66% to 70%

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ130 YES from 55% to 66%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ43/Ṁ46 YES at 55% (cancelled)

Michael Sartor bought Ṁ250 NO from 75% to 50%

Jacob Dean sold Ṁ11 NO from 73% to 75%

Jason Lynch bought Ṁ50 YES from 70% to 73%

Cpeter bought Ṁ10 YES at 70%

GN bought Ṁ50 YES from 66% to 70%

Remi vise la mire bought Ṁ10 YES from 65% to 66%

Shrewdsun bought Ṁ10 NO from 67% to 65%

Jason Lynch bought Ṁ10 YES from 66% to 67%

Daniel Ziegler created limit order for Ṁ150 YES at 60% (cancelled)

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ45 YES from 62% to 66%

Jacob Dean bought Ṁ50 NO from 70% to 62%

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ465 YES from 66% to 70%

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ100 YES from 65% to 66%

Mqrius sold Ṁ23 NO from 61% to 65%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 42%

cos filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 NO at 68%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 50%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 75%

Stig Johan bought Ṁ10 NO from 63% to 61%

Train Jumper filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ10 NO at 63%

Jason Lynch bought Ṁ40 YES from 61% to 65%

Lemminkainen Fisher bought Ṁ50 YES from 54% to 61%

Jacob Dean bought Ṁ30 NO from 59% to 54%

Stig Johan bought Ṁ10 NO from 61% to 59%

Chax208 filled limit order Ṁ66/Ṁ100 YES at 50%

Chax208 bought Ṁ15 YES from 59% to 61%

GPT-PBot bought Ṁ2 YES at 59%

Isaac filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 NO at 65%

Isaac bought Ṁ20 NO from 63% to 59%

Isaac filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 NO at 69%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ9/Ṁ11 NO at 63% (cancelled)

Chax208 bought Ṁ100 YES from 59% to 65%

Stig Johan bought Ṁ20 NO from 63% to 59%

Erick Ball bought Ṁ50 YES from 56% to 63%

Lemminkainen Fisher bought Ṁ15 YES from 53% to 56%

Jacob Dean bought Ṁ20 NO from 58% to 53%

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ25 YES from 53% to 58%

Stig Johan bought Ṁ20 NO from 58% to 53%

Daniel Ziegler filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 70%

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ45 YES from 48% to 58%

Isaac filled limit order Ṁ30/Ṁ30 NO at 65%

Isaac sold Ṁ36 YES from 57% to 48%

Jacob Dean bought Ṁ50 NO from 70% to 57%

Rory Speirs bought Ṁ10 YES at 70%

Isaac bought Ṁ2 YES at 70%

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