Let's have fun, place some bets, and learn about the French parliamentary system.

Here is how it works. There are 577 seats in French parliament aka "National Assembly" -- including overseas territories.

There are two rounds of voting. The first on June 30th, and the second on Sunday July 7th. After all second round votes are counted, we will know the party of each of the 577 assembly members.

At that point the parties will negotiate (usually, quite quickly) to determine what will be the winning / ruling coalition that has a parliamentary majority.

Most focus is on two parties / coalitions
1. Macron's centrist "Ensemble coalition" that is expected to lose, but may pull out a win if the National Rally (LePen's coalition) is not able to win an absolute majority.
2. LePen's National Rally -- right wing and the favorite

3. Left wing coalition "New Popular Front" -- seen as more likely to form a ruling coalition than Macron's centrist group or LePen's right wing group

These names may change... such is French politics. But it will be very clear what happened. Probably by evening of July 7th, or a day or so after.

As of June 30th -- before first round results have been announced, here is some information we have.

National Rally is over 95% chance to win the election (but perhaps with a partner)
https://www.bettingonpolitics.co.uk/francepoliticsbettingmarkets.html

According to this article, polling suggests that National Rally would get about 37% of the vote and projected to win close to ~50% of the seats. Close to enough for absolute majority of 577 but could be close.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/national-rally-seen-winning-37-popular-vote-first-round-french-snap-election-2024-06-28/

Let's face it -- unless you a French or expert in parliamentary systems... you probably don't understand all of this. But place a wager anyway. Let's learn how this system works.

Viva la France! 🇫🇷🥖🗳️