Let's have fun, place some bets, and learn about the French parliamentary system.
Here is how it works. There are 577 seats in French parliament aka "National Assembly" -- including overseas territories.
There are two rounds of voting. The first on June 30th, and the second on Sunday July 7th. After all second round votes are counted, we will know the party of each of the 577 assembly members.
At that point the parties will negotiate (usually, quite quickly) to determine what will be the winning / ruling coalition that has a parliamentary majority.
Most focus is on two parties / coalitions
1. Macron's centrist "Ensemble coalition" that is expected to lose, but may pull out a win if the National Rally (LePen's coalition) is not able to win an absolute majority.
2. LePen's National Rally -- right wing and the favorite
3. Left wing coalition "New Popular Front" -- seen as more likely to form a ruling coalition than Macron's centrist group or LePen's right wing group
These names may change... such is French politics. But it will be very clear what happened. Probably by evening of July 7th, or a day or so after.
As of June 30th -- before first round results have been announced, here is some information we have.
National Rally is over 95% chance to win the election (but perhaps with a partner)
https://www.bettingonpolitics.co.uk/francepoliticsbettingmarkets.html
According to this article, polling suggests that National Rally would get about 37% of the vote and projected to win close to ~50% of the seats. Close to enough for absolute majority of 577 but could be close.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/national-rally-seen-winning-37-popular-vote-first-round-french-snap-election-2024-06-28/
Let's face it -- unless you a French or expert in parliamentary systems... you probably don't understand all of this. But place a wager anyway. Let's learn how this system works.
Viva la France! 🇫🇷🥖🗳️
Related questions
Leaving turnout and coalition questions unresolved for now.
Looks like you all are pricing in both hung parliament (no unity government made within a week) and eventual government with Macron's coalition and FNP.
We'll see how that goes. If alliances are reformed seriously breaking those during the vote, we will play resolution by ear.
Results via Le Monde
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/07/07/2024-french-election-results-chart-and-map-of-second-round-winners_6676976_8.html
RN and allies -- 143
Macron's coalition -- 168
FNP alliance -- 182
LR (conservative, not RN) -- 46
Waiting for final results but pretty good summary even this morning
https://deepnewz.com/economics/french-left-wing-coalition-surpasses-macron-le-pen-july-7-elections
More projections
https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1808767361446727882
RN [right wing] - 190-220
NFP [left wing] - 159-183
Macron coalition [centrist] - 110-135
Predictions [from the post]
RN far from being able to rule with absolute majority
all these major groups hate each other so hung parliament seems likely [but we'll see]
day after first round, detailed projections from someone who does understand French elections
https://x.com/phl43/status/1807711569343586597
Avec les résultats du premier tour, le modèle donne ça :
- RN et LR-Ciotti : 274 (263 - 284)
- NFP : 126 (120 - 132)
- Ensemble : 102 (96 - 109)
Next round voting on Sunday 07/07 -- so votes will change. But these are good projections now for the three big parties.
RN projected NOT to make a majority on their own... but it's somewhat close.
from the same official site, you can see overall % by party -- again in the first round
but looks like RN (LePen's party) got 29% which is less than the 34% they were projected to get
as some commentators pointed out, the left wing alliance (27.99%) had very strong voter turnout in the urban areas -- so geographically quite distinct
Another good update from exit polls. Remember this is the first round. Re-vote next week.
https://x.com/politlcsglobal/status/1807474753273217351?s=46&t=KLdh_NjKu_D5KdnD3UmDRQ
Good thread from someone who does know things…
https://x.com/phl43/status/1807476630970880467?s=46&t=KLdh_NjKu_D5KdnD3UmDRQ
