French 2024 parliamentary elections -- multi-question. Final round July 7th.
Basic
46
32k
Aug 15
83%
Will Ensemble coalition (Macron's coalition) form or be part of majority?
22%
Will New Popular Front (leftwing alliance) form or be part of majority?
5%
Will National Rally win (form ruling coalition)?
Resolved
YES
Will Ensemble coalition (Macron's coalition) win 100+ seats?
Resolved
YES
Will New Popular Front (leftwing alliance) win 150+ seats?
Resolved
YES
Will Ensemble coalition (Macron's coalition) win 150+ seats?
Resolved
YES
Will there be a hung parliament? Defined as no majority coalition formed by July 14th (week after second round).

Let's have fun, place some bets, and learn about the French parliamentary system.

Here is how it works. There are 577 seats in French parliament aka "National Assembly" -- including overseas territories.

There are two rounds of voting. The first on June 30th, and the second on Sunday July 7th. After all second round votes are counted, we will know the party of each of the 577 assembly members.

At that point the parties will negotiate (usually, quite quickly) to determine what will be the winning / ruling coalition that has a parliamentary majority.

Most focus is on two parties / coalitions
1. Macron's centrist "Ensemble coalition" that is expected to lose, but may pull out a win if the National Rally (LePen's coalition) is not able to win an absolute majority.
2. LePen's National Rally -- right wing and the favorite

3. Left wing coalition "New Popular Front" -- seen as more likely to form a ruling coalition than Macron's centrist group or LePen's right wing group

These names may change... such is French politics. But it will be very clear what happened. Probably by evening of July 7th, or a day or so after.

As of June 30th -- before first round results have been announced, here is some information we have.

National Rally is over 95% chance to win the election (but perhaps with a partner)
https://www.bettingonpolitics.co.uk/francepoliticsbettingmarkets.html

According to this article, polling suggests that National Rally would get about 37% of the vote and projected to win close to ~50% of the seats. Close to enough for absolute majority of 577 but could be close.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/national-rally-seen-winning-37-popular-vote-first-round-french-snap-election-2024-06-28/

Let's face it -- unless you a French or expert in parliamentary systems... you probably don't understand all of this. But place a wager anyway. Let's learn how this system works.

Viva la France! 🇫🇷🥖🗳️

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What happens if part of the NFP is ruling coalition.

Ie. socialists + greens + ensemble form ruling coalition

Is it possible to resolve some of the earlier bets?

what bets are you not seeing that you want resolved?

oh I thought the "RN win outright" market didn't resolve because it popped up in my open section never mind

all good -- yeah not sure how long we wait for the parties to form a government... I'd say at least a month, maybe a bit longer

I made this market mostly to follow along and learn about the French election system -- which I believe we all have

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/07/07/french-elections-second-round-turnout-at-5-pm-reaches-59-71_6676962_7.html
63% of French voters turned out to vote on Sunday, slightly less than in the first round, a week ago, when voters had already turned out in large numbers.

Wikipedia says 66.63%

Are there other figures around?

thanks!

@Moscow25 Sanity checking: the question is set to end Jul 15th.

Do the positive "form coalition" / "part of majority" options resolve no at that point or get deferred as long as it takes for some new PM to be chosen?

(I believe they should stay pending, but I do have a vested interest)

Yes I’ll extend it. Agreed. Gotta let them have a month at it.

Leaving turnout and coalition questions unresolved for now.

Looks like you all are pricing in both hung parliament (no unity government made within a week) and eventual government with Macron's coalition and FNP.

We'll see how that goes. If alliances are reformed seriously breaking those during the vote, we will play resolution by ear.

I think your definitions are unusual.

There is no majority in the Assembly - that is a hung parliament. That's what a hung parliament is. If a coalition forms that does not make the parliament un-hung. The 2010 UK Parliament was hung throughout its term.

I also find it a bit strange to ask about July 14th and forming a majority and stuff, when the Assembly doesn't convene until the 18th. Given their lack of experience in these situations (this is the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic that no party is even vaguely close to a majority), and given that Macron has rejected Attal's resignation, it is quite possible the coalition negotiations will only seriously happen once the Assembly convenes.

Then don’t bet it

How helpful of you.

Results via Le Monde
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/07/07/2024-french-election-results-chart-and-map-of-second-round-winners_6676976_8.html

RN and allies -- 143

Macron's coalition -- 168

FNP alliance -- 182

LR (conservative, not RN) -- 46

Will New Popular Front (leftwing alliance) form or be part of majority?

@Moscow25 The whole alliance? What if it's just some of the parties?

If it’s a majority of the alliance. If just one splinters off then won’t count

Waiting for final results but pretty good summary even this morning

https://deepnewz.com/economics/french-left-wing-coalition-surpasses-macron-le-pen-july-7-elections

RN massively under-performing projections
https://x.com/phl43/status/1810024603332575379

More projections
https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1808767361446727882
RN [right wing] - 190-220
NFP [left wing] - 159-183
Macron coalition [centrist] - 110-135

Predictions [from the post]


RN far from being able to rule with absolute majority

all these major groups hate each other so hung parliament seems likely [but we'll see]

Added some more liquidity. Let's have fun here.

day after first round, detailed projections from someone who does understand French elections
https://x.com/phl43/status/1807711569343586597

Avec les résultats du premier tour, le modèle donne ça :

- RN et LR-Ciotti : 274 (263 - 284)

- NFP : 126 (120 - 132)

- Ensemble : 102 (96 - 109)

Next round voting on Sunday 07/07 -- so votes will change. But these are good projections now for the three big parties.

RN projected NOT to make a majority on their own... but it's somewhat close.

election map after the first round -- purple is RN

from the same official site, you can see overall % by party -- again in the first round

but looks like RN (LePen's party) got 29% which is less than the 34% they were projected to get

as some commentators pointed out, the left wing alliance (27.99%) had very strong voter turnout in the urban areas -- so geographically quite distinct

Voter turnout below 70% in first round. 66% according to official figures. Thanks for the link!