Predict my 2026 manifold journey
20
Ṁ1kṀ2.3kDec 31
87%
I get demoted from master once
75%
I create a bot account to compete in silicon league
77%
My mana net worth exceeds 1 million at any point in the year
17%
My mana net worth exceeds 2 million at any point in the year
35%
I lose my daily betting streak
20%
I become inactive (no trades for a month)
73%
I profit more than 50k mana from a single market
Predict my 2026 journey on manifold. Will not bet besides setting initial odds
Resolution Criteria
Each answer resolves YES or NO based on whether the specified event occurs at any point during 2026 (January 1 - December 31, 2026).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Will I spend money on manifold in 2026?
48% chance
Will a manifold user do something very cool by the end of 2029?
32% chance
Will I be active on Manifold at the end of 2026?
58% chance
Will @BTE own/run Manifold at the end of 2026?
2% chance
How will I do in this month's manifold season?
Will my Manifold rating be above 4.1 in a month?
67% chance
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What will be my position on the Manifold profit leaderboard at the end of 2026?
40.3
Will any of my questions be in Manifold Predictle by EOY 2027?
33% chance
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bought Ṁ200 YES
@Mochi I think can resolve, nevermind, jsut scrolled down. How can we assess your networth?
@JussiVilleHeiskanen yea I realize it’s hard to track my loans in my networth, but basically I won’t have another loan for a while and I already returned previous loan, so whenever my nw+rice nw exceeds 500k this can resolve YES
Technically I do have a bot account @Rice, but I may never make it compete in silicon league due to lack of league rewards. So this question can still resolve NO
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