Predict my 2026 manifold journey

Ṁ1kṀ1.2k

Dec 31

80%

I get demoted from master once

27%

I win master once

74%

I create a bot account to compete in silicon league

70%

My mana net worth exceeds 500k at any point in the year

34%

My mana net worth exceeds 1 million at any point in the year

16%

My mana net worth exceeds 2 million at any point in the year

35%

I lose my daily betting streak

27%

I become inactive (no trades for a month)

73%

I profit more than 50k mana from a single market

Predict my 2026 journey on manifold. Will not bet besides setting initial odds

Resolution Criteria

Each answer resolves YES or NO based on whether the specified event occurs at any point during 2026 (January 1 - December 31, 2026).

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Will I spend money on manifold in 2026?

48% chance

Will a manifold user do something very cool by the end of 2029?

32% chance

Will I be active on Manifold at the end of 2026?

57% chance

Will @BTE own/run Manifold at the end of 2026?

2% chance

How will I do in this month's manifold season?

Will I get masters ranked in manifold by March 2026

9% chance

Most profitable Manifold user at end of 2026

What will be my position on the Manifold profit leaderboard at the end of 2026?

38.6

Will any of my questions be in Manifold Predictle by EOY 2027?

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@Mochi does this resolve yes

@Cactus no a loan is not part of my networth

Technically I do have a bot account @Rice, but I may never make it compete in silicon league due to lack of league rewards. So this question can still resolve NO

does "profit more than 50k mana from a single market" include sum of profits from multiple choice or does it count each answer as an individual market?