The criteria is:
preponderance of referenced documentation describing what that opportunity is (internal or external to OAI).
Note, as of now the the preponderance of information points to a conflict in ‘safety’ between parties. ‘Safety’ is a proxy term to AGI.
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| # | Name | Total profit |
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Why was this resolved to YES? How do you know this is why Sam was fired?
@firstuserhere Twitter is rife over the past 24 hrs regarding secretive Q* model success.
@MoMoadeli Twitter was rife with wild conspiracy theories for the 24 hours before that. Doesn't mean they're correct.
And even if the Q* model's success is a huge leap in capabilities, we still can't (yet) say whether that was somehow related to the firing of Sam Altman
@firstuserhere I believe Twitter was mostly correct all along and the ‘final’ analysis simply brought everything together. Note:
@MoMoadeli In fact, there's a market for exactly the question of whether Q* was related to his firing, and it's very low
@firstuserhere Then we don’t have any evidence one way or another. What do you suggest I should do otherwise?
@MoMoadeli Keep the market open until we have evidence! I think it's better to be correct than early.
Or, set a date when you will resolve to the best of your judgement if no new evidence comes out
@MoMoadeli There should be an UNRESOLVE button available for you. I think it stays for 10 minutes after resolution. If that's gone, I think a mod like @Eliza could reopen the market for you. No harm done
@MoMoadeli Reopened. You can set a new closing date based on when you expect the market to resolve. I highly recommend writing some criteria in the description.
@MoMoadeli you should be able to set the new close date by clicking on the "6 mins ago" thing on the right side, as shown in the screenshot