If another statement on AI risk is released by May 31, 2023, who will be the Turing Award winner that signs it?
32
2kṀ30k
resolved May 30
33%33%
Yoshua Bengio
33%33%
Geoffrey Hinton
33%33%
Martin Hellman
0.0%Other
0.2%
No such letter will be released.
0.0%
Yann Le Cun
0.2%
22b5bb65b14af58d9cfe2d1516e953e9
0.2%
Someone not listed here
0.0%
f548ad4b3f0d98d5368cac6ce9c4689c
0.0%
05113d921e762d91cc25303683273d8a
0.0%
0761270db61175e10d11012a16e8abdc
0.1%
794ba9712f15c8447f629e917fb6401f
0.0%
6f0deca5822080ec5eeb506a762086b7
0.0%
c95f2358a070d9b59a53004e468ac532

Derivative market of https://manifold.markets/quinesweeper/will-there-be-another-wellrecognize

Will there be another well-recognized letter/statement on AI risk by May 31, 2023?
50% chance. Resolves YES if there is a similar letter as the Pause Letter released by the Future of Life Institute by end of May 2023. Resolves NO otherwise. We’ll call it well-recognized if it gets signed by at least 10 big public figureheads in AI, and at least one Turing award winner. It may ad…

That market requires a Turing Award winner to sign it to resolve YES. This market resolves to an equal split of every such person. Resolves "No such letter will be released" if it doesn't apply.

If a letter is published, any new entries added after publication are disregarded. The special entry "Someone not listed here." accumulates the weight due to any persons without an entry.

REGARDING HASHES: A hash of a Turing Award winner is acceptable if the name isn't already added as an entry. If somebody adds the plaintext name to the list, weight due to the person will be split across them by mana invested as of the publication time of the letter.

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