What will be true about GPT-4.5?
155
8.5kṀ93k
resolved Aug 30
Resolved
NO
It won't release during 2024
Resolved
NO
It will release in April 2024 or before
Resolved
YES
It will release between May and October 2024
Resolved
NO
It will release in November 2024
Resolved
NO
It will release in December 2024
Resolved
YES
Its knowledge cutoff will be in or before April 2024
Resolved
NO
Its knowledge cutoff will be any day in May 2024
Resolved
NO
Its knowledge cutoff will be any day in June 2024
Resolved
NO
Its knowledge cutoff will be in or later than July 2024
Resolved
NO
It will support at least 199.5k context
Resolved
NO
It will support at least 499.5k context
Resolved
NO
It will support at least 999.5k context
Resolved
YES
It will be cheaper than GPT-4 Turbo
Resolved
YES
OpenAI will claim it faster than GPT-4 Turbo
Resolved
NO
It will have a different logo color from green, black, or purple(based on resolution of https://manifold.markets/MiraBot/what-color-will-the-next-openai-llm?r=TWlyYUJvdA)
Resolved
YES
It will be trending on Twitter the day of release. A name like "GPT", "OpenAI", "GPT-4.5" could all count. Checked from a clean account.
Resolved
NO
It will be considered AGI by the New York times
Resolved
NO
It will be considered AGI by Wikipedia 3 months after release (can happen before but the check should be made at 3 months)
Resolved
NO
It will be considered AGI by OpenAI
Resolved
YES
It will sota at the time of release (highest score on lmsys arena)

Variations like "GPT-4.5", "GPT-4.5 Turbo", "GPT-4 Turbo 2.0" all count. Must use separate branding but remain in the GPT-4 family: A model id update to "GPT-4 Turbo" or "GPT-4" wouldn't count. GPT-5 won't count either.

Add your own options. One who creates an option is responsible for clarifying follow-up questions. @Mira may interpret them if not, or resolve the option NA.

If GPT-4.5 is not released in 2024 or insufficient information is presented, options resolve NO by default unless specified to resolve differently.

If GPT-4.5 is released, moderators should close this market for trading immediately.

Resolution tags. Place at the beginning of an option to change how it resolves.

  • Default: Option resolves NO by default at end of 2024

  • Ambiguous(2024): Option resolves 50% by default at end of 2024.

See also: /MiraBot/what-will-be-true-about-gpt5

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