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Can someone explain how calibration works? I had -3.9 for a long time fluctuating. After this market resolves it jumped up to -0.39.

@KongoLandwalker You bet 100 YES at 98%, and calibration weights a sample of bets weighted by size at each percentile bucket. So you probably make lots of small bets, this was one of your largest at 98%, and you had a lack of YES predictions in the 98 percentile bucket but good predictions in the other buckets.

It looks like you need to bet on 30% markets for your next boost.

@Mira thank. But I still feels strange and unintuitive

It says Mira was promoted to the Diamond League "Giga Mystics" , this can resolve yes

@Tripping there you go

Can you please teach me how to create such links — https://manifold.markets/leagues/1/platinum/Fortuitous-Portents/ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72

@bessarabov I visited my profile in a private window and clicked the "Rank 1 Platinum". Then the URL had to be "freestanding" since I wasn't logged in.

@Mira Thank you!

What if someone doesn't offer a shady backroom deal to manipulate this market, but is upfront and honestly offering you a deal in say the comment sections

The way this would resolve NO is Manifold staff ditching the leagues concept

@Mira would this market resolve NO or N/A in that case, actually?

@Tripping If I meet the criteria for promotion but they don't run a second season, resolves YES. If they ditch leagues during the current season so there's no finalized profit number, resolves NA.

I believe in u but 96% is too high

@JohnSmithb9be Bought some NO just to hedge my positions in other markets thinking the same thing. i.e. "If all my other predictions blow up, this one is more likely to resolve NO so I might as well profit here"

If anyone wants to buy into my limit order, it makes it much more likely this will resolve YES...

@JohnSmithb9be well its 97 now, it's 18k profit to 2k in 2nd

@Dreamingpast I mean, what are the odds of another The Market or MVW inspiring gambling fever?

@JohnSmithb9be not for @Mira cuz of their markets on trying to be more trustworthy, turning a profit, the trustworthy ish market, etc. Really good character display or whatever the phrase is. And even back when Mira originally lost with Homer, it was a p fun + positive play