Each share(YES or NO) on a non-Other answer is a ticket to win. People get 20% more tickets for shares on answers with their username.
PRIZE TABLE
Prize Tier | N | Amount | Resolve %
GRAND PRIZE π₯| 1 | M1000 | 26%
Whales π| 3 | M250 | 8% each = 24% total
Dolphins π¬| 5 | M100 | 5% each = 25% total
Minnows π| 25| M10 | 1% each = 25% totalFor each prize type, I will choose N random traders weighted by their number of tickets at closing, and managram them a prize.
Each answer resolves by summing the number of prizes won by that answer's user according to the "Resolve %". So if a user wins 2 π and a π¬, their answer would resolve 7%.
Sampled with replacement, so you can win multiple prizes.
If there is text or other usernames in an answer, only the first username gets the bonus and is chosen for resolution. It should be edited to just that username.
Answers tagged "[INVALID ANSWER]" will never resolve and any shares on them are ineligible as tickets. If this market reaches the 100 answer limit, no spillover market will be created.
Related questions
π Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ78,281 | |
| 2 | αΉ3,813 | |
| 3 | αΉ1,734 | |
| 4 | αΉ231 | |
| 5 | αΉ122 |
@JoelMcGuire I meant "will never be allocated resolution %". It's not possible to cancel options on a linked multibinary market.
Did @jack and @MichaelWheatley even come out ahead on this? What was their collective net profit?
@JoelMcGuire spent about 10k for a return of 3.8 and I spent 7k for a return of 1.7, so looks like Joel comes out slightly ahead! Good work!
@benshindel We had about 3-4k net profit between the two of us. The main trade we did was hedged so that totaled between the two of us there was no profit and also no risk - it just bought us a bunch of lotto tickets. The only profit came form the small net yes position on ourselves, and the only risk would have been if someone else had managed to print even more lotto tickets and made that position worth less than the few cents we bought it at.
@jack I mostly played the lottery in terms of betting on if I thought people would win informed by a python script I used to calculate the percent of shares people had at any time.
My main mistake was playing for prizes at the start. I bet I lost 300 to 500 mana betting no on other (this wasn't a great way to get shares of people who are likely to win) while voting yes on other is an effective hedge. I tried to keep my stake in yes on other equal to my position because I figured someone would spam answers eventually and I could hedge out
The second mistake was not figuring out the risk of wash trading to my strategy. I absolutely could and did get blown away on a few bets made when people were at like 15% of shares owned. That's how I lost so much on myself.
My third was not using limit orders at the start. The market moved a lot so I could effectively eat up shares with limit orders
still need to scratch your gambler's itch? for charity?
---> /strutheo/coolfold-5050-charity-raffle-2024
@traders This lottery draw should be deterministic using the below code and bot-generated random number seed. The final prizes are:
π:
"Fion",6
"jack",6
"KevinBurke",5
"MichaelWheatley",4
"benshindel",2
"Dilon",1
"nemo3501",1π¬
"A",1
"Fion",1
"jack",1
"JoelMcGuire",1
"KevinBurke",1π
"jack",1
"KevinBurke",1
"Soli",1π₯: @Fion
This market resolves:
@Fion : 6 + 5 + 26 = 37% with a 60 + 100 + 1000 = M1160 prize.
@jack : 6 + 5 + 8 = 19% with 60 + 100 + 250 = M410
@KevinBurke : 5 + 5 + 8 = 18% with 50 + 100 + 250 = M400
@MichaelWheatley : 4% with M40
@benshindel : 2% with M20
@Dilon : 1% with M10
@nemo3501 : 1% with M10
@A : 5% with M100
@JoelMcGuire : 5% with M100
@Soli : 8% with M250
@FairlyRandom Running the earlier code with
SeedRandom[492809]
generatePrizes[5]gives:
"A",1
"Fion",1
"jack",1
"JoelMcGuire",1
"KevinBurke",1who are the winners of the π¬ prize.