This market aims to predict the lowest non-zero marginal price per image input for OpenAI's multimodal language models by December 31, 2023. Participants are asked to consider various pricing schemes and possible discounts or offers that OpenAI might introduce for these models. ChatGPT 3.5 was able to obtain a 90% cost savings shortly after its release; it's possible the image inputs will be similar.
The price range for this market is linear scaling between $0.03 and $0.10 per image input, estimated as 1 image being approximately 1000 tokens. Market's unit of prediction is hundredths of a cent.
Resolves to the lowest non-zero marginal price per image input if:
OpenAI announces or implements a pricing model for multimodal language models on or before December 31, 2023.
Resolves as NA if:
OpenAI does not release image input support by December 31, 2023.
The market creator retains the right to resolve this market as NA within the first week for any reason or no reason.
"Lowest non-zero marginal price per image input" refers to the smallest non-zero amount charged for an additional image input, considering all available pricing schemes, discounts, and offers. It does not include free trials, promotional periods, or temporary offers. It is capped from below at $0.03, and from above at $0.10. The range can be adjusted within the first week(such as by NA'ing this market and creating a new one with adjusted bounds) if there is consensus to move the bounds elsewhere. The price must be replicable - the API call when rerun many times has the same price. If images are priced differently, Mira will use a 1024x1024 24-bit PNG file, or the largest numbers below that which the API will accept.
"Multimodal language models" refer to any models developed by OpenAI using the Chat Completions API that can accept both text and image inputs and output text. These models are not required to output images or accept any other modalities as input. Any such model qualifies for this market, regardless of it's designation as "GPT-4".
"Linear scaling" means the resolution will be based on the linear difference between the actual lowest non-zero marginal price and the specified price range, mapping the difference to a percentage between the lower and upper bound.
Terms can be adjusted within one week after market creation. After that, terms can only be refined to have narrower meanings or to have additional examples added.