
Will OpenAI inference costs fall by 100x over the next 18 months?
22
1kṀ57122026
32%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves to YES if either:
A fast model (in the same class as gpt4o-mini) costs less than $0.150 / 100M input tokens AND $0.600 / 100M output tokens.
A best-in-class model (e.g. gpt4o) costs less than $5.00 / 100M input tokens input tokens AND $15 / 100M output tokens.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)
85% chance
Will OpenAI consume more than $250M of Microsoft compute in 2025?
75% chance
Will OpenAI release an agent priced at $10k per month or above in 2025
9% chance
Will OpenAI make a profit in 2024?
3% chance
Will OpenAI have $1 billion in revenue in 2025?
99% chance
Will OpenAI launch a model even more expensive than o1-pro in 2025?
36% chance
Will OpenAI have $2 billion annual revenue in 2025?
98% chance
Will OpenAI release a model which generates images using reasoning / inference-time scaling before 2026?
50% chance
Will OpenAI increase the cost of its ChatGPT o1 Pro Subscription Plan this year?
37% chance
Will OpenAI reach $12B annualized revenue by end of 2025?
79% chance