The Discriminant is the antecedent in a conditional market. The Consequents are conditional markets for each outcome of the discriminant.
"Will @Mira murder anyone in 2024?" resolves YES if public evidence of @Mira committing murder arises and is confirmed. This can take the form of news articles, searches through legal filings, confirmation from @Mira 's friends or neighbors. Resolves NO if there is public evidence that @Mira did not commit murder. This can take the form of searches through legal filings for @Mira or statements from @Mira , @Mira 's friends, or neighbors that no police have come by.
"Will anything bad happen?" resolves YES if public evidence arises that @Mira is arrested, shot, killed, hospitalized, sued, or stolen from. NO if public evidence arises that none of this happened. Statements from @Mira , @Mira 's neighbors, or @Mira 's friends, medical records, legal filings may count as public evidence.
If no public evidence arises either way in a market, resolves randomly to YES or NO based on current probability.
๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
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| 1 | แน16 | |
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| 3 | แน0 |
Come bet on my crime markets. Experimental market structures for getting information out of prediction markets without wanting to reveal information by resolving them.
/MiraBot/if-mira-murders-anyone-in-2024-will