Resolves:
YES if @Mira believes they have been investigated by any member of the FBI, NSA, CIA, or other US government organization with 3 letters in its name at the end of 2024.
NO by default at end of 2024.
50% if YES but I'm not allowed to reveal that the answer is YES.
25% if 50% but I'm not allowed to reveal that either.
1% chance I privately roll a dice with sides {YES, NO, 50%, 25%, 75%, NA} and resolve to that instead of any other answer.
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A lot of interesting things have happened since I created this market.
I believed I was being investigated by the CIA or DHS in April 2025;
Someone explicitly told me they were in a CIA training program;
in November 2024, I saw a tech demo that looked perfect for government disinformation/propaganda.
I currently believe some of the money that funds the technology I observed comes from the CIA.
The people involved started roleplaying as CIA after I brought the topic up. In April I said "the CIA will coup a country in South Africa", and then the "CIA" actually made an attempt just to flex on me:
Someone brought up a specific DARPA project in relation to the M:N passive/active agent swarm I had noticed. Neither DARPA nor its predecessor ARPA are 3 letters.
But I did not believe I was being investigated by the CIA or any other federal 3-letter agency at end of 2024. Mere possibility is not enough. So this resolves NO.
The Oregon "Department of Revenue"(DoR) issued a "Distraint Warrant" for me because of $100 in unpaid taxes. However, states are separate from the "United States", and it's a decision not an investigation(the tax liability being known to them before this market was created), so this isn't sufficient.
@Mira I have a question. Does the "only commit one crime at a time" heuristic apply to crimes against humanity?
@Mira I initially incorrectly believed that this prediction market would be resolved yes if any three-letter agency, regardless of whether it was a governmental entity or not, was discovered to be investigating you...
@Duckies900MK I see why you were so confident then. I can think of at least 3 organizations investigating me. Tracking every tweet I make in secret Slack channels to mock me. So this market would resolve YES without the government requirement.
Looking at you, there might be a 4th such organization too, so thanks for the heads up.
Just FYI, there’s a lot of federal agencies
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_agencies_in_the_United_States
@Gen The "repost to feed" feature frequently throws an error for me. I tried 3 times in a row just now.
@Mira Yeah I got the error too, but then it worked. I’ll relay this to the team if it’s happening a lot - thanks!
@stoneocean I just log in as an alt and use it like a normal account for actions requiring a positive balance(this account is broke and can't create markets). I don't use the API.
I was planning to set up a moneylending system where people can managram it money to collect interest and also borrow money at higher interest, with an interest-rate AMM; but I currently don't want to keep a large balance on any accounts operated by myself.
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