Resolves YES if Waymo intentionally routes a public driverless ride-hail ride onto at least 1 kilometer of any freeway in or directly adjacent to San Francisco before the market close time. Resolves NO otherwise.
Public meaning the ride must be given to a non-employee (of Waymo/Alphabet).
Freeway meaning a segment of highway (road) that is barrier-divided (k-rail, guardrail, or cable, between opposing traffic), has a speed limit of at least 45 mph, and is limited-access (no attached bikeway, sidewalk, or crosswalks; and no intersections or driveways--excepting toll plazas; for a continuous segment).
Examples of SF freeways for this question:
I-80, I-280, the Central Freeway, US-101 south of the Central Freeway, US-101/CA-1 through the Presidio and across the GGB, CA-1 through Pacifica, etc.
SFO "collector-distributor" lanes along US-101 (i.e. from San Bruno Ave and Millbrae Ave) to/from the airport
Examples of SF non-freeways for this question:
19th Ave (CA-1), Sloat Blvd/Skyline Blvd (CA-35), Great Highway,
Alemany Blvd and San Jose Ave: Some segments are 45 mph, but have attached bikeways.
John Daly Blvd -> Junipero Serra Blvd -> Alemany Blvd: Too short
John Daly Blvd -> Junipero Serra Blvd -> 19th Ave: Long enough but has attached sidewalks/crosswalks
Local SFO airport access roads - 35 mph speed limit, too short, and not separated
Other end dates:
2024 Q4: https://manifold.markets/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-daa8c90d07e9
2024 Q3: https://manifold.markets/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-9231f0d06ad8
2024 Q2: https://manifold.markets/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-0689e8261c03
2024 Q1: https://manifold.markets/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-cbd374e5878c
2023 Q4: https://manifold.markets/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on
45 mph on Alemany (next to 280) but no freeways https://twitter.com/rjschmidt/status/1741225297993703484
Next markets:
2024 Q1: https://manifold.markets/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-cbd374e5878c
2024 Q2: https://manifold.markets/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-0689e8261c03
2024 Q3: https://manifold.markets/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-9231f0d06ad8
2024 Q4: https://manifold.markets/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-daa8c90d07e9