Will Waymo give public driverless rides on any SF freeways by the end of 2024? [description]

Resolves YES if Waymo intentionally routes a public driverless ride-hail ride onto at least 1 kilometer of any freeway in or directly adjacent* to San Francisco before the market close time. Resolves NO otherwise.

Public meaning the ride must be given to a non-employee (of Waymo/Alphabet).

Freeway meaning a segment of highway (road) that is barrier-divided (k-rail, guardrail, or cable, between opposing traffic), has a speed limit of at least 45 mph, and is limited-access (no attached bikeway, sidewalk, or crosswalks; and no intersections or driveways--excepting toll plazas; for a continuous segment).

Examples of SF freeways for this question:

  • I-80, I-280, the Central Freeway, US-101 south of the Central Freeway, US-101/CA-1 through the Presidio and across the GGB, CA-1 through Pacifica, etc.

  • SFO "collector-distributor" lanes along US-101 (i.e. from San Bruno Ave and Millbrae Ave) to/from the airport

Examples of SF non-freeways for this question:

  • 19th Ave (CA-1), Sloat Blvd/Skyline Blvd (CA-35), Great Highway,

  • Alemany Blvd and San Jose Ave: Some segments are 45 mph, but have attached bikeways.

  • John Daly Blvd -> Junipero Serra Blvd -> Alemany Blvd: Too short

  • John Daly Blvd -> Junipero Serra Blvd -> 19th Ave: Long enough but has attached sidewalks/crosswalks

  • Local SFO airport access roads - 35 mph speed limit, too short, and not separated

Update 2024-02-16: For "adjacent" I will include all the counties which border SF: Marin, Contra Costa, Alameda, and San Mateo

Other end dates:

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You may already know this, but for the future note that these sorts of “possible date” questions can be put in one market: https://manifold.markets/OlegEterevsky/when-will-the-4th-starship-launch-h

Phoenix freeway driverless testing w/ non-public riders https://waymo.com/blog/2024/01/from-surface-streets-to-freeways-safely.html

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