This market predicts whether Waymo will extend its ride-hailing service to include any part of Marin County.
Resolution Criteria: Market resolves YES if Waymo officially announces or launches service in any part of Marin County before the end date. Market resolves NO if no such expansion occurs by the end date.
Update 2025-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Resolution Criteria:
Partial Coverage: Full coverage of Marin County is not required; availability in any part of the county is sufficient.
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Waymo is expanding faster than I expected: https://www.theverge.com/news/627619/waymo-silicon-valley-robotaxi-bay-area-service-area
@WilliamGunn Edited for clarity: As long a regular Waymo One user can call a ride to or from a location in Marin (or Waymo announces that it plans on allowing so) It counts. There does not need to be entire coverage of the county
@Putcallparity Sorry, should have been more clear - for a yes resolution someone has to be able to take a Waymo anywhere in Marin - Stinson beach, Mt. Tam, etc?
If anyone is interested in expansion in the other direction:
https://manifold.markets/DavidFWatson/will-waymo-one-expand-its-sf-bay-ar-RPz5llnUln?play=true
@DavidFWatson system auto tagged Tesla. Given the tag is way more watched than Waymo I thought I’d keep it