Will Waymo give public driverless rides on any SF freeways by the end of Q3 (September) 2024? [description]

Question

Resolves YES if Waymo intentionally routes a public driverless ride-hail ride onto at least 1 kilometer of any freeway in or directly adjacent* to San Francisco before the market close time. Resolves NO otherwise.

Public meaning the ride must be given to a non-employee (of Waymo/Alphabet).

Freeway meaning a segment of highway (road) that is barrier-divided (k-rail, guardrail, or cable, between opposing traffic), has a speed limit of at least 45 mph, and is limited-access (no attached bikeway, sidewalk, or crosswalks; and no intersections or driveways--excepting toll plazas; for a continuous segment).

Examples of SF freeways for this question:

I-80, I-280, the Central Freeway, US-101 south of the Central Freeway, US-101/CA-1 through the Presidio and across the GGB, CA-1 through Pacifica, etc.

SFO "collector-distributor" lanes along US-101 (i.e. from San Bruno Ave and Millbrae Ave) to/from the airport

Examples of SF non-freeways for this question:

19th Ave (CA-1), Sloat Blvd/Skyline Blvd (CA-35), Great Highway,

Alemany Blvd and San Jose Ave: Some segments are 45 mph, but have attached bikeways.

John Daly Blvd -> Junipero Serra Blvd -> Alemany Blvd: Too short

John Daly Blvd -> Junipero Serra Blvd -> 19th Ave: Long enough but has attached sidewalks/crosswalks

Local SFO airport access roads - 35 mph speed limit, too short, and not separated

Update 2024-02-16: For "adjacent" I will include all the counties which border SF: Marin, Contra Costa, Alameda, and San Mateo

Other end dates:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-daa8c90d07e9)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-9231f0d06ad8)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-0689e8261c03)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-cbd374e5878c)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on)

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Oct 1, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.